10 cents more takeover offer, page-13

re: in play I think this share should move up in the next few days. There is still a bit of market uncertainty clouding the trading field. Here are some different ways to look at the numbers:

Affinity (Brett Sutton) says that CDO has underperformed by 71% for shareholders (48%CDO+23%market). He also says that their $4.50 bid is a 36% premium to their 'pre-speculation' valuation. My maths make that valuation to be $3.31. SO if you apply his own CDO underperformance number it gives CDO a target valuation of $5.65.

Or you can backward engineer the market P/E and CDO's P/E and you get a target price of $5.78. In my books that means that Affinity is bidding 4.50 for something that they value at 5.65 and the 'market perform' target gives them $5.78. Add to that a great balance sheet in terms of minimal long-term debt, Affinity can pay way more and still leverage it into the Private Equity ballpark return of 30-40%.

There may be another bidder come along but more likely CDO says no and Affinity ups their bid. It is BS to believe they won't up it. Allco did a similar thing to Baycorp and up'ed their bid. Besides, I don't think Brett Sutton has the experience to game the market on this. Game theory says "accumulate" - the target is way higher for CDO and Affinity will pay up. Shout that to the world!