HST hastie group limited

10 cents

  1. 11,625 Posts.
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    Is my bet for the bottom. There are companies with a far better history than HST selling at lower multiples than 7 times. I'd give it 5 times expected 2012 until there is a demonstrated change in the success of the business.

    You can look back at my posts for my reasons.

    By the way - some of the more optimisitic posts seem to be suffering from four charlie munger labelled errors. One he would call overoptimism tendency ("what a man wishes, that also he will believe" and . . . Two. social proof tendency - where you go along with what you think other people are doing. Three contrast misreaction tendency. This co looks cheap compared to what it was. Four. availability misweighting tendency - you got offered the cap raise - and are working with what was available, and don't want to let go now you have latched on.

    re the bots - you need to decide whether you are dealing with a first order or second order effect, or any effect at all. Seems the bots have been going both ways - if you are looking at the small sells and buys. If (re small sales) you are looking at a first order effect - they are selling to distribute without setting off the herd. If second order - they are distributing to make the stocks look like they are ??? going down ??? so they can buy more.

    Which is most likely - first order, second order or neither?

    I personally think neither, as they have been going with the crowd.


 
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