I re-ran my numbers last night - looking at $22-25 for e/v per ounce using $4.8m cash and between $0 & $4m RUM nominal value (arbitrary judgment) @ current share price.
Some of the mine infrastracture is ok to use as far as I am aware, not sure about the declines, so there may be some cost savings compared to a pure startup.
Risks are probably making sure they have enough above ground ore from Cuddingwarra and other open pit sources - without checking the presos again I think it's about 350k ounces. Depending on resource to reserve conversion ratio this may be enough to get them up and running, funding ongoing underground development out of future cashflows.
While a sale of WGR's holding seems possible, I'd like to see the mining study results due next Month because if they're reasonable a lot of AAG's potential is as a stand alone operation (gold price and operational issues going our way).
There is exploration upside BUT if you read the last preso they're talking about 10 year mine life @ 100k ounces being possible out of half of the current resource base. As long as they get a reasonable conversion to reserves finding new ore isn't really a priority.
JT
AAG Price at posting:
27.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
