Citi upgrades some of its 2023 commodity price forecasts, with its biggest increases coming on thermal coal and lithium, amid "China reopening euphoria", but it expects a "challenging year given slowdowns in China, EU and US."
:China’s reopening presents risks around expectations and, on a 12 month view, we see more downside than upside to our commodity basket," says Citi's Paul McTaggart.
"We see modest 12-month upside to aluminium/alumina but over 20 per cent downside for thermal coal, rutile/zircon, nickel and lithium."
It lifts copper 13 per cent to US$8,000 a tonne, cuts Brent oil 9 per cent to US$88 a barrel, lifts iron ore up 13 per cent to US$109 a tonne, lifts metallurgical coal up 3 per cent and thermal by 17 per cent to US$331 a tonne.
Citi's lithium carbonate forecast gets a major 50 per cent lift to US$60,000 a tonne.
The broker lifts its FY24 earnings forecast for CIA, FMG, WHC and NHC by 14, 11, 35 and 45 per cent and upgrades New Hope and Whitehaven to Buy on the back of "higher for longer thermal coal prices."
