100 bagger?

The other thread is so long, I've put my response on another thread.

"It would even at this early stage, look like it has a better than even chance of approval?. Would you agree?"

I would agree with that. Whilst we are still at an early stage, we know that there is proof of concept in animals and some evidence in patients from a "lesser" drug.

We are also fairly clear of a number of other hurdles that many fall on.

1. It's safe (fairly strong evidence so far).
2. There is need.
3. Efficacy doesn't need to be too good to get approval.
4. No competitors.
5. Orphan drug status.
6. Very commercially viable.

ok, so I feel that we have a better than 50/50 chance of approval.

We have a conservative market of $2b.

Allowing for costs, a partner's share and whatever, we have a conservative profit of $500m.

Giving a conservative p/e of 10, that gives us a market cap of $5b. (a p/e of 10 is very low, given growing markets, further indications etc. srx's is over 100, csl's is similar).

So the current market cap is $43m, so a good 100 times lower than that conservative $5b figure.

It's easy to realise that whilst an sp of 10c sounds high at the moment, in reality it is pretty low.

buy & hold, cheers