Hi all,
I agree, to say that Amazon has prevented GSW from complying with disclosure rules is absurd. Especially given that this is now being handled by undisputed tier 1 professionals in PWC.
Let me clarify. In quoting that "no further information will be provided" (above) I was making a reference not to an ability to breach disclosure of material revenue, but to the details of the arrangement that GSW has with Amazon.
Regarding the materiality of the revenue generated and transactions from this agreement, I think it is important to view the disclosure practices of GSW as more multifaceted than they have often been presented here - "GSW has no respect for disclosure and lies at will" argument.
There are, in my view, two distinct periods to assess in terms of disclosure. Pre and post PWC. Clearly there has been a significant change in disclosure practices in these two periods. It is my contention that prior to AFR and PWC, the company was announcing non-binding contracts (ie: pay-per-usage/cancel anytime) as "partnerships" with implied guaranteed transaction numbers. This is indeed playing fast and loose with the listing rules, hence the troubles.
After the disclosure troubles I believe that GSW has been told that the contracts, as pay-as-you-go and cancel anytime are not a guarantee of revenue and usage (which they aren't), hence they would be in breach of their disclosure obligations if they make announcements about possible revenue generated from these contracts (which they would). Hence they will only be able to disclose when/if transactions occur. After the fact, not before. Even if they think Amazon will use 1 million deliveries (remember Amazon logistics only, not huge numbers), they will be unable to say this until they actually make the 1 million deliveries through the platform. Hence we will find out via either milestone achievement or quarterly. I believe the former.
As the possible Amazon deal would only recently (May 24ish) be kicking in, I would expect an announcement within the next 2 months if this contract is "real" in any significant way. My 2 month timeline stems from, as I have said before, the time-lag from the last milestone Ann (23 days into the subsequent month), and the fact that the final few days of May are possibly not enough to reach the milestone trigger given Amazon logistics is such a small volume (of an admittedly large) network. The real value of the contract would be in future possible expansion of this network usage.
If this is not forthcoming within this 2 month period GSW will take another serious credibility hit, as if Amazon are using the exact technologies offered by GSW, and it is not being provided by GSW, whatever the deal they do have must be pointless.
I hope that clears up my views. Also, I think people need to remember this is now an investment proposition at 40c with 100m in the bank. That is a VERY different proposition to $4 in terms of risk reward.
Hope this counts as just discussing the possibilities of a stock on a forum which I thought was built to discuss the possibilities of a stock, and not as "cheerleading".
Thanks,
IMO, DYOR.
MJ
