Couldn't disagree more. Institutional investors haven't signed up for the CA, so you can take away the 100m you've thrown into the equation. Further, and not to sound harsh for anyone in the current CA, but the prospectus clearly outlines that this is a pay as you use model. You stop using, you stop paying. They've admitted that some clients stopped using the service, this is very different to admitting fault. If NA comes through (and there's no indication it will not) then the contracts referenced are indeed immaterial and disclosure is not needed.
As you pointed out, they have insurance. So while if you read the prospectus, the model is clearly outlined, I do think there will be a settlement due to this insurance. That's how these things go, insurance will pay, cash on hand will be untouched, and the business continues to operate. Meaning that on this alone, valuing the underlying business at absolutely zero (which if you check Appannie is clearly not the case), the current SP is still undervalued based on cash on hand.
As for the downtrend, of course it is. The company has been silent for months. Any company that is silent that long will suffer a SP drop, it is in itself not indicative of a failing underlying business.
Pending deals mentioned:
Commbank: GSW informed this would rollout on the new Albert system. The new albert system has not yet rolled out, hence it is not yet showing up in reports - nothing new to disclose.
NA: Still within the timeframe given for implementation. In Sept it was at least a 15 -18 month implementation timeframe, we are at about 9 months now. Let me be clear here, this is the ONLY deal I care about as a basis for investing in the stock, the rest are nice bonus deals to theorise and discuss.
Amazon: We've theorised, but nobody really has any clarity here. Who knows.
I agree with you that as yet, there is no proof in revenue and/or transactions. However for me we are still well within given timelines for implementation, especially given the company would have no doubt suffered setbacks as a result of the way this year began.
It may continue to drift to zero, and never recover. But for mine, there is certainly a potential upside at 37c a share. Risky? Yes. Little upside? No.
You'd certainly expect to see a return to growth in the upcoming 4c though, and I'll be holding off on any buying until then, given it is so close.
All IMO, DYOR
MJ
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