100% buyout of jv comments ?, page-2

Hi Matt,

I'm probably telling you the obvious -- FMG are no longer in financial strife and I think that'll make all the difference in this.

The spot price hitting USD$88t periodically this time last year was probably serendipitous for BCI. IMO there's no way we could've got 25% of the NIOJV for $120M (On the assumption that the pre-paid rail, port, port handling was $70M). 120+70=190.

No idea what FMG will want for the remaining 25%, but at this stage I figure it won't be cheap, even with FMG's very close relationship with Tony, Mike, Morgan and Blair.

My hunch is if BCI does buy the remaining 25%, the announcement will coincide with something else, for example another JV such as Mindy Mindy.

And personally I'd be very surprised if the up coming F/F dividend was anything south of 20 cents.

As for the H1FY14 dividend, at this stage I hazard to guess. But as you point out, if BCI can make the kind of cash with the current exchange and IO price,BCI may generate $0.80 to $1 a share for H1FY14. Not sure if they will pay 40% of that out as a dividend or pay back more debt. But the interim dividend **MAY** be 32 to 40 cents.

The flow on effect will make funds and self investing retirees stand up and take notice. That being BCI could potentially be paying out over 60 cents a share fully franked for the full year. And since that's based on returning only 40%. There's still more than enough free cash left to allow BCI to continue to grow beyond Nullagine.

But I hope you understand I really really don't want to say anymore at this stage mainly because I don't want 40 cents pinned to my hide IF the IO price comes crashing down.

Bye