IMHO only:
The short term certainly has many challenges - commercial (who can do the job) and financial (who can source the finance).
The long term economics are fine (PBT and the upswing in Ni demand from EVs). Labour supply is a challenge to the commercial case.
The strategic case is well set out by the mineral assets and infrastructure and by Fed investment in the POS-PBT JV. There is no question that POS should be in this business in the long term.
The question is about who runs POS and who owns POS. This may need to be a big player who can manage commercial and financial risk.
If POS cannot deliver a FID by September, then we need to carefully ask why. We need to ask this now. Feds and PBT need to be vitally concerned that their investment is at risk.
If the potential delay is due to short term commercial and financial issues then a take over by someone who can manage them is a better option than paying a team to wait and hope and over promise - and perhaps never deliver.
Some examples of management of short term commercial and financial risk are:
1. Norilsk dumping the combined projects entirely - cut losses and exit.
2. BHP previously halting its Ni project after a $1b investment - cut losses and exit
3. BHP re-entering the Ni projects recently and partnering with Tesla - invest heavily and change business model
A BHP-POS-PBT tie up is looking sensible, if POS cannot do this work itself.
Just MHO. Do your own research.
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