100 percent probability that the fomc will dec

Based upon the December 7 market close, the 30-Day Federal Funds futures contract for the December 2007 expiration is currently pricing in a 100 percent probability that the FOMC will decrease the target rate by at least 25 basis points from 4-1/2 percent to 4-1/4 percent at the FOMC meeting on December 11.

In addition, the 30-Day Federal Funds futures contract is pricing in a 41 percent probability of a further 25-basis point decreasein the target rate to 4 percent (versus a 59 percent probability of just a 25-basis point rate decrease).

Summary Table
December 4: 28% for -25 bps versus 72% for -50 bps.
December 5: 43% for -25 bps versus 57% for -50 bps
December 6: 50% for -25 bps versus 50% for -50 bps.
December 7: 59% for -25 bps versus 41% for -50 bps.
December 10:
December 11: FOMC decision on federal funds target rate.