Originally posted by peak2peak
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a veiwpoint from an analyst I respect.
LITHIUM / MARKETS / SHARESFebruary 24, 2023Albemarle Again Bending MinRes to its Own WillBy Glenn Dyer | More Articles by Glenn DyerMORE MINERAL RESOURCES LIMITED CONTENTUS lithium giant Albemarle seems to have again successfully deflected the lithium processing ambitions of Perth-based Mineral Resources and its CEO, Chris Ellison.Two announcements from the companies this week revealed slightly different takes on the story – which centres on the restructuring of the MARBL joint venture between the duo.Talks have been ongoing for a year since the original announcement at the start of 2022 about the revamp of the JV and its expansion.As a result, MinRes will not be able to move into lithium hydroxide production in Australia and instead will have to spend well over a billion dollars paying Albemarle for 50% stakes in its two Chinese plants as well as a separate payment of $US350 million, less a payment from Albemarle of between $US100 and $US150 million.Albemarle will also increase its control over the Kemerton plant’s two trains (in southwestern WA). The original state a year ago this month called for the Kemerton ownership to remain 60% Albemarle and 40% MinRes.Instead it is 85% Albemarle and only 15% for MinRes, a significant change and Albemarle will operate both trains.Albermarle will also supply MinRes’s 15% spodumene quota for Kemerton from its share of the output of the Greenbushes mine. MinRes will pay market rates for the key ingredient – no mates’ rates there.The Kemerton plant will continue to be fed from the Greenbushes mine nearby – its 49% owned by Albemarle and 51% by the joint venture of IGO and Chinese lithium giant Tianqi (who are building their own hydroxide plant at Kwinana).MinRes does get to lift its stake in its Wodgina mine in the Pilbara, albeit only from 40% to 50%. And MinRes gets back management of this mine, which is another plus.The deal also sees MinRes acquiring a 50% interest in Albemarle’s wholly-owned Qinzhou and Meishan plants in China. The latter plant is currently under construction and has a design capacity of 50,000 tonnes a year. It is due to start commissioning next year. The former plant currently has a capacity of 25,000 tonnes a year and will need modifying to convert Wodgina spodumene, according to Albemarle.The 50% stake in the two Chinese plants was not mentioned in the 2022 statement – Albemarle will get $US660 million from MinRes and will continue to manage both plants. (The deal has to be approved by Chinese authorities, but MinRes shouldn’t have any concerns seeing it is in a WA iron ore JV with a big Chinese steelmaker.)That’s the other big change from 2022 and even that is not what MinRes would have preferred – half ownership is OK but management and/or operation control, shared or otherwise, would have been far more valuable to the Perth company.“We are delighted to have reached these binding agreements, which cement MinRes’ place as a world-leader in lithium mining and leverage our partner Albemarle’s strong track record in battery chemical production,” CEO Chris Ellison said in the statement on Thursday.“By growing our battery chemicals business and expanding into global chemical marketing, MinRes will become one of the world’s largest fully integrated lithium chemical suppliers to auto manufacturers, capitalising on the increasing demand for sustainable battery mineral products,” he said.Albemarle CEO Kent Masters said the MARBL restructure positioned the company strongly going forward.“Our Australian lithium assets are core to Albemarle’s strategy to build a globally diversified portfolio of best-in-class assets and resources,” he said.“Inherent to that strategy is managing our global portfolio to maximize growth optionality and maintain a leading position in a dynamic, growing market. Our restructured MARBL joint venture enables each partner to deliver long-term value to our customers.”The effect of the Thursday announcement is that MinRes has more toys in the lithium sector but Albemarle has control and keeps its feet on the prized hydroxide processing assets in WA and China.Albermarle has kept MinRes out of any chance of gaining operating experience in operating the key part of the lithium process – the hydroxide refinery and preparing it to battery grade (as well as to lower industrial grade for more general use).MinRes has had a small but potentially important win – instead of, as the 2022 statement said, Albemarle being responsible for the marketing of chemicals from both joint ventures, MinRes will be responsible for selling its share from Kemerton (15%) and Wodgina (50%), which gives it a valuable foothold in the global lithium marketing business.Not covered by this new arrangement with Albemarle is MinRes’ 50% owned Mount Marion lithium mine in WA. The other 50% owner is China’s Jiangxi Ganfeng Lithium Co. MinRes is the operator.Will MinRes’ next move be to spin off these lithium interests in the US, as it and its market mates have been suggesting now for six months?It’s no wonder its lithium interests helped the company to lift earnings to $390 million for the six months to DecemberRevenue was up p 74% to $2.350 billion, Underlying earnings EBITDA was up 503% to $939 million, the net profit of $390 million was up a fantastical 1,890% and the interim dividends is 120 cents per share.There was no interim in 2022 and the previous payout was $1 per share in February, 2021. The company paid a final last year of $1.75 per share.Revenue and earnings jumped because of the surge in lithium prices with the conversion of spodumene from the Mt Marion and Wodgina spodumene mines in WA into lithium battery chemicals.Mineral Resources’ lithium revenue came in at $997.2 million, up from $143 million a year earlier. MinRes also reported modest increases in iron ore and mining services revenue.Analysts though were forecasting the lithium EBITDA to be more than $1 billion, ($1.06 billion was the consensus) so that’s why MinRes shares eased on Friday.But the results do give a big hint as to why Ellison was prepared to revamp the JV with Albemarle – he has to stay in the game.
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“..The effect of the Thursday announcement is that MinRes has more toys in the lithium sector but Albemarle has control and keeps its feet on the prized hydroxide processing assets in WA and China.
Albermarle has kept MinRes out of any chance of gaining operating experience in operating the key part of the lithium process – the hydroxide refinery and preparing it to battery grade (as well as to lower industrial grade for more general use).”
I like Glen Dyer too @peak2peak and thank you for posting his story of last Monday, but I don’t necessarily agree with Glen’s inferences that MinRes would have gained by any deal which put it in charge of operating hydroxide refineries.
1) It’s not MIN that would have been doing any operatinging but valuable key employees whose - yes - valuable experience would likely be highly sought by other hydroxide processing facilities (especially in current times with labour shortages + many new hydroxide processing facilities trying to come on line)
And who would be hiring expert key operatives for Chris in China?
2) I understand these plants do NOT run like clockwork once established! The chemical mix is very sensitive.
3) And why?
I think Chris is not trying to take on Albemarle, number one lithium operator in the world and beat it at it’s own game, and that he likely doesn’t want to become an expert at hydroxide refining himself and that he will hire someone to teach him if he does,
And that he has plenty of other fish to fry besides the spodumene one.
But I guess time will tell
cheers