10000 on the djia, page-74

I am wondering why people still looking for a top, or a turn date. It is a bull market, fulled by easy credit. It will stop somewhere for sure.

After stop, what could happen? roll over again? It might take multi-months distribution before anything could happen. Check it out 2002 and 2003 period, when the interest rate is close to 0. Bubbles, and bubbles. Who cares?

It seems I was wrong when I think the current situation is close to 2001-2002. I forget that crash was caused by 911 event. Now the only pattern I am using now is 2002 and 2003.

So I think the chance of another crash is pretty remote. The high inflation will keep stock market in a trading range, see-saw between inflated assets through devaluation of currency, and high interest rate.

I am shifting from banks to more defensive stocks. A few stocks is still quite cheap, has not participate in the rally at all, such as CSL, SEV, and AAC. I am going to have a good look at them.

Another phenomenon is sudden move of penny stocks. For instance, HAV up 20c on one day, HDN up 20c and double its price in the similar fashion, and CRE nearly 40% today at one stage, just mention a few stocks I used to own. It is an indicator of stock market top.

Well, I am not interested in any turn date, I am happy not to know it. I would rather deal with it after it has happened then to be a hero to have nail it.