"What do think the share price would be if the takeover does not...

"What do think the share price would be if the takeover does not happen soon? will it be stuck at 1.10 for 6 months?
Cheers"

I think it depends on the following

1) How slow the acceptances are from now on. This will become clearer over the next week. Xstrata made a very generous offer for JBM, BUT after 5 months or so Xstrata was still struggling to obtain 50%. Int he case of JBM there was no reason such as impending production to encourage shareholders to hang on.

In the case of AGM, production is VERY close, and there should be a rerating of the stock at that time, as analysts call a final derisking of the project.

2) ZFX is highly unlikely to pull the bid, so ZFX will keep extending and there will little or NO risk to shareholders BEFORE production starts. So PRIOR to production, AGM will have a stock price underwritten by ZFX = > great position to be in till the market recovers. After production AGM should be re-rated. In normal circumstances re-rating should take the price higher than 1.10 in any case. Please note AGM will eventually have a mine life of 50 years => high P/E of 10:1

3)The decision of hedge funds will be vital. It is curious to note that they have held on a long time, despite no-one coming forward yet. They have an average entry price of about 1.04 and Money is costing them about 0.4% a month. So they can easily hang on till after production. As I said earlier, ZFX has shown that it will keep re-extending for months. Without the hedge funds, ZFX are very unlikely to gain control, even if Lion sells. So if the hedge funds stick together ZFX will have to raise the bid, won't they?
If ZFX does so AFTER production starts, shareholders are in a good position.