re: gann m'lord Bendigo
It doesn't defy commonsense when you have seen people call exact tops and bottoms to the exact day and exact point months in advance even when the market looks like it is going the wrong way.
Personally, I trade with the trend and only at extremes do I tend to take other action if a multitude of things suggest otherwise. OK I will scalp a little but not usually reverse my major holdings till things are confirmed.
Perhaps there is no holy grail but there are mysteries to the markets that the longer term observer has to acknowledge.
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