Based on the Hartley's report and erring on the side of...

Based on the Hartley's report and erring on the side of conservative - I suspect we're likely to top at 9-10c and hit 15-20c on news of a JV. 30c+ will likely occur pre-spud. 9c+ is a good time to lock in some profits and re-enter if the share price retraces on lack of news. I would expect an announcement post July based on a rough time line+estimation.

Due diligence and contract negotiation take time - more so for the amount of money and logistics involved in offshore drilling. If there is more than 1 party than this will only drag things further.

If there is no news from now to July onwards and assuming the JV announcement is post-July than we can expect the sp to retrace, especially if the All-ords takes a battering due to external economic reasons (i.e european debt, slow recovery etc), in which case this will present ample buying opportunities to re-enter or top-up. With this stock, I have found riding the waves can net you more $$ than waiting for the JV announcement itself.

In the end there is a limit on SP appreciation to how far speculation can go, but if you read between the lines and time your entry right, there's plenty of $$ to be made.

The people who weren't burnt badly by the Shell experience are the ones who took some profit when we hit 15c prior to the announcement. I hope we learn from our mistakes.