What are you basing your pricing on? Everything will need to go against RIA for that to happen.
The current market cap is circa $80m, with $25m in cash and another $10m to be reimbursed to them, this doesn't leave a lot in the valuation for their PROVEN oil and gas assets.
They have 116mboe in contingent reserves. 58mboe of these are at Gazelle and some of these WILL be converted to 2P reserves when the revised CPR is released towards the end October but more probably during November (hardly any oilee seems to keep to timescales!!)
Even if say 20mboe of these reserves are converted they would be able to generate enough value to arrange an RBL facility of between $100m-$150m which would ensure completion of wells and pipelines to get the first 3-4 wells connected and producing. Any RBL will only happen after the CPR and the Gas sales agreement becoming finalised.
Any further financing will likely be through a farm-out as stated previously be RIA which will probably have some back costs and well carries involved.
Using the Petroci option agreement, it looks as if RIA have spent circa $90m of back costs ($10m / 11%) so if they farmed out say 40% (controlling) they would likely get around $30m in back costs and a bit more in well carries.
If you look at Afrens business model they tend to farm in at around $1-$2 of proven resources (ignoring Kurdistan - completely different fiscal regime) then they could get somewhere between $46.5m and $93m for selling a 40% interest. If RIA can finance their component of development drilling through an RBL and realise something like this for a farm in, then I wouldn't bet the house on their being another CR. At the current share price, clearly a farm in would be most value accretive for shareholders and why the BOD have already stated that this is their aim for project financing.
Valuations at 5c are crazy and would only happen if the traders get hold of this and force it down further as I don't think their contingent resources warrant this.
Look at the other oilees in Australia and compare them.
RIA - 116m barrels - $80m FAR - $105m - I don't know all about them but do they have a discovery or just in nearby blocks in Senegal and now Kenya? PCL - $132m - first discovery made today in Kenya, higher impact but clearly higher cost to bring to market than RIA RRS - $159m - small assets in Trinidad and the US, sure they are producing but their assets are significantly smaller than RIA's COE - $164m - sure they have $60m in cash and are making money (off a low production number) but their reserves are very small - 1.9m 2P - 9.2m including contingent reserves
I'm not saying the above companies are undervalued, more than RIA is when compared to them, and when comparing on a 2C base their EV, which is currently trading at a mere 52c / 2C barrel (assuming receipt of the $10m of funds from Petroci and a reduced 74% interest in CI-202).
RIA Price at posting:
11.0¢ Sentiment: LT Buy Disclosure: Held
