SSN 0.00% 1.5¢ samson oil & gas limited

10Q Filing, page-7

  1. 10,883 Posts.
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    Praise for your effort JW, given you have said you're not a O&G man.

    Don't have a lot of time at present, so quick responses for your consideration.

    1. "Efficient markets" etc .... maybe you are a beta investor. Nonetheless I think the market has reacted according to the information in the 10Q. The trading day preceding release (it was towards end of day was it not) the price was bid up (reaching US$0.68) - call it in anticipation of good 10Q. Subsequently the price has fallen back to US$0.58 as it becomes clear it is not as good as anticipated. I guess that is why there is a market - different points of view

    2. The "improvement" in Net Loss - suggest understanding why and back out the impairment to see effect. I would remove the *good* rating

    3. Production improvement. Well now you actually have to know what that means. If it cost you $1.10 to produce a widget which you sold for $1 and you increased your production rate would you cheer that as good news? So while increasing production is "good" in the sense they are bringing the old wells back and increasing the bopd, it has come at a much higher cost than expected (and forecast by SSN). I would remove the *good* rating

    4. Gas production down. I would say *good* not *bad* as gas it near worthless and requires gathering infrastructure to process.

    5. Covenant compliance is NOT OPTIONAL. Therefore not *good* but as expected and only noteworthy as *bad* if not in compliance. What is not told is how close are they on EBITDAX and liquidity.

    The cut-paste of looking ahead is motherhood and apple pie. HOW will they do this?

    a. Plenty of opportunity to do so with G&A and have not achieved much of anything
    b. LOE is getting away from them especially produced water disposal
    c. How will the note to OAS be repaid Apr 1st?
    d. The NYSE:MKT listing requirement is to remind all about their "Shareholder Equity" in the balance sheet and how any impairment in PP&E will likely wipe that out (again).

    My reading of SSN over past 2 years has saved me thousands. Been tempted a few times but discipline prevailed.

    GFTA.
 
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