"It prob wont see the likes of $10 for a long time"
You can say that again.
It went to $10 not out of sound logic but out of hype and was never worth more than about $4-$6 given the huge debt, and that the distributions were artificially elevated to bolster the SP.
IF refinancing and asset reduction occurs it will savage the dividend as it will be absolutely essential (and likely a condition of refinancing) that they make bigger repayments of capital to secure the company against further credit market wobbles which may be sooner than thought (could be a catastrophe at end of year if a large proportion the mass of loans being refinanced then end in jingle mail).
If you hold shares don't expect any distribution for at least a few years (and you wouldn't really want them either as strengthening up there financial position will have a much more positive effect of the SP than the value of a dividend, and CGT discount/deferral of tax until sold benefit too.
IMO IF this does get suitable refinancing the extra interest costs (it will be a higher rate) and the loss of several income producing assets (they will have to sell some of the best income producing ones as they will be the only ones to fetch anything like a fair price in this financial environment) will reduce future annual dividends to about 20c, and they won't be in a position to buy up new assets for several years given the disaster caused by the overly aggressive purchasing in the last few years. This would still give a great recovery in SP from now (maybe a SP of $2.50-$3.00 - a 6-7 bagger) though this will take about 2-3 years.
News of a refinancing may give a fair chunk of this immediately (maybe a rise to about a dollar, a 2-3 bagger) but remember they are still deep in the brown stuff, so if it gets to a dollar I would be selling (nerves would probably have me selling about 80c).
I don't hold though will consider a position on Monday AM if it is not in a TH and the price is right. I will be setting a low-ball buy at around 25c as there are likely to be a few nervous holders holding more than they care to lose who will panic if there is not an ann. early on Monday.
CNP Price at posting:
0.0¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Not Held
