12 month extension rumour, page-98

JDV,

It all sounds good on paper. Whether shareholders get anything depends a lot on timeframes, penalties, creditors that materialise out of the woodwork, legal action by a group of greedy shareholders who feel they are more special than others that have lost money and deserve to get more back, administrator/receiver fees etc.

Centro is so complex it will take years to separate assets for sale and then find suitable buyers (all buyers go for the jugular in receivership sales knowing they can screw the price right down). Over these years the banks also get greedy(is that any surprise) and jack up interest on outstanding loans and charge absurd default fees.

All those on here that held shares in a major (eg HIH, Ansett) that went under - how much did you get back? - absolutely nothing I believe.

Now I think Centro will probably survive with major wounds. Probably losing around a half of their current assets to achieve a modest reduction in gearing (note effectively negative equity in US assets given what they paid and what they are now worth). They may also need to dilute by about a factor of 2-3. I would think the position will likely be something like:
Assets 13 billion
Debt 8 billion
shares 2-3 billion
Annual profits 200-300 Million
distribution (2011 onwards) 8-20 cents
SP (2011) $2.00-$3.00

Just my semi-educated guess.