Great work@Tomson and @maxi1981 in picking these up. I had been...

Great work@Tomson and @maxi1981 in picking these up. I had been meaning to check the 121 conference circuit but kept forgetting to do so. Well done you for being proactive.

Two things the@Geogle

First is they're only rough guides. The goals are for that period. So "3 months" means "in the next 3 months", rather than "won't happen until 3 months' time". And they're pretty easy on that front. For instance, the profile for London, which is in May, still states the pilot plant will be operating in May 2019, but operation of the plant is a 3 month goal for that conference. Given that it is late in May, I would hope the plant is already operating by the time the event rolls around.

https://www.weare121.com/121mininginvestment-london/client/lepidico/

Which leads to the second point; we need to consider when this was written. If it were written in February, say, then a 3 month goal to operate the pilot plant would fit with the May delivery. 3-6 month period for the FS means somewhere between June and August. The last update we had on the timeframe for the feasibility study was first half 2019, so that's June at the latest. That came from the December quarterly, which came out two weeks before LOH-Max was announced. Impossible to say if it was already factored in, but I would be curious if someone wanted to email Joe to ask the question.

If they're still targeting first production in 2020 and expecting a 15 months build time, it would mean an FID no later than September 2019. Previously they have allowed a period of 3 months between FS and FID for sorting out finance and signing offtake agreements. If that period remains the same, then the FS would need to be delivered by June for an FID in September and production before the end of 2020.

From a finance point of view, they're likely to run out of money again by the end of June, so a capital raising will be necessary. If there isn't an FS by then, the CR would be unlikely to be large enough to fund building P1. The 121 profile also states that the FS is fully funded, so they must be reasonably confident in getting it done before the money runs out. We'll see. Again, if you want to email Joe and ask the question, I would be very interested in the outcome.

For what it's worth, I haven't factored in any production in 2020 in my assessment, and only 500t by middle of 2021. As you say, delays are inevitable with this type of project.

Cheers