$13.20 Valuation, page-147

I do intend to take a position in AUZ. Maybe even a third and fourth cobalt stock, too.

But all valuations have plenty of "IF" in them. I do my best to consider the probability of success, and the certainty of the result.
While I get excited about big returns, one has to consider the probabilities of success and the likely time frames also.

Lets take some other stock... to avoid controversy...say stock Cobalt X. Trading for $.50 cents. Based on research let's say I think it could get to $5.
But gosh...there's the PFS, the permits, the DFS, the financing...a long time to go...plus now I have to worry about what prices will be in seven years. Could be a Disallowed...wow...but a lot of things could go wrong.

In contrast, let's say I think Clean Teq can hit $2 this year, and $3 next year, and $6 the year after. True, it is not a ten bagger. From today's price it is only a four- or a five- bagger. Pretty paltry compared to Cobalt X.

But the difference is....I have a very, very high degree of confidence that it is actually going to happen !
I have deep fact-based conviction in CLQ. For that reason, I am willing to put a large amount of capital into CLQ,
but not as much into Cobalt X. To me, CLQ is about as certain as it is going to get.

Now I do intend to take a position in Cobalt X; and also, Cobalt Y and maybe even Cobalt Z. But in conversations I think it is almost better to exclude
CLQ from discussions on cobalt prospects, because for me it is in a class by itself. I do not know of a stock in any sector that I think is a SURER
big gainer than CLQ. Maybe another stock will go 10x, 20x, 100x current market cap. But what is my degree of certainty ?

I have stated my interest in AUZ. AUZ has appreciated because of the SK deal. The deal improves AUZ's chances a lot. In fact I will even concede that it is possible that AUZ might surpass CLQ in market cap at some point; although I truly doubt that it will, or that it will maintain that relationship.
But it certainly could have a percentage appreciation greater than CLQ at some arbitrary future point in time.

However it is also my opinion that the uncertainty is greater with AUZ, even if the upside is greater. Personally, there is no possible way I would consider an investment in AUZ of the size I have in CLQ. And I like AUZ.