GOLD (COMEX) $1300 level by April

Originally posted by sydney ↑

Gold market is primed for the next leg up for the following reasons:

-The Fed meeting should be a non-event if they hike the interest rate as this has already been priced in. The big catalyst for gold if they hold off citing impending global volatility from the European elections or rising rate by 50 basis point to counter the expected Trump's big budget deficits or rising inflation. The market will not like that and correction in the market will start.

-The Dutch election is running hot and Geert Wilders's advance will set the scene for the far right wing win in the French election next month (the black Swan event and the collapse of the European union will start).

-The consumer price data will be published this Wednesday, this will influence the Fed one way or another, but there is a moderate trend of rising inflation. Rising inflation above expectations will set a fire in the gold market.

- Donald Trump is expected to out line his 2018 fiscal budget and I am expecting big spending and budget deficits. He has indicated that he would like to see lower American dollar to make the export industry more competitive. His only chance to counter the Fed interest rate hike is to come up with big budget deficits, not only t fulfil his election promises, but also to drive the dollar lower.

- Rising budget deficits will prompt the conservative senators who are worried about the rising debts to go and try to block some aspects of the budget, creating uncertainties. We all know what does that mean for gold at least in the short term.

The reporting season is nearly done, investors pocketed the dividends and it is a time for correction.
Real currency and trade war have just begun and in my humble opinion, I see a huge upside for gold in 2017.

Whether I am right or wrong, I am just sharing my thoughts.
I could be right and see gold price >$1300 by April or it could be an April's lie.

My thoughts.

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Great post Sydney.
A lot of bad news for Gold seems priced in for now, and many coming events can potentially help us.