130m shares in a state of flux, page-3

morning all, hi recyug,


last night

"Focus currently has a relevant interest in Crescent of 66.3%, which would increase to 74.2% if Focus converted up to $13 million worth of Crescent convertible notes "

I could be wrong here but focus get board control asap at 75% from what I can see.

That at the most leaves 25% outstanding - at present stone is apx. 11.65% (last night)

I assume fml will get .8% more - probably quite a few more than that.

I would assume with the Stone holdings - if they don't agree to come over to fml (they might, they might not - not a lot of face saving options from where I sit) - clearly, unless they are going to make a desperate attempt to make trouble - then logically they should sign over - but, it might be an emotional thing, not a logical thing.
On that note, it depends on who has been pulling the strings - whether they have given clear instructions or whether they have left the play in the hands of others - eg. the solicitor from the meeting yesterday.
If they have left it with him and he has royally stuffed it up - they might be upset with him and not fml - they might see fml as a successful force and honorable and they might be happy to pitch in ? who knows?
On the other hand, if they have been running the play - they might be wounded and very angry and signing over would be a large loss of face - and they might dig in? Don't know.

These are the options I can think of -----

cre would sit as a public company with very low (in fact nil) trading.

cre could be diluted down so fml get over the 90% mark then compulsory acquire

cre would be delisted and the remaining shares only tradable in private deals (fml would probably be a buyer if asked) Stone might hold on or sell.

there might be other options - but I think they are the three most likely - and personally I think it would be one of the last two , I can't see cre just sitting on the asx doing nothing.

that's my thoughts.

There is one other nagging thing in my mind though - it is what do we want to do with cre?

It seems to me that fml being fml - (we do it straight, we value relationships) - fml would have been right up front with cre - we would have told them what we want to do - clearly they were impressed - they have bought the ideas lock, stock and barrel - they know they are onto a good thing with fml.

That said - WE don't know what our company has in the plan - so to my thinking

If we intend to run the cre business as a profitable operating business - then it is what it is and stone will have to get in or stay out in the wilderness.

But, - and this is a big but.

If fml only really wanted some of the advantages and assets of cre ------------- then a good trade is a possibility.
If per chance Stone ALSO only really wanted some of the assets ------ then IF (big if) we both didn't want the assets that the other one wanted ------- then a deal is more than possible -------- it could be very good for both parties - and we could trade and go our separate ways.

So, I am probably thinking crap here - but it has been niggling at me and it is possible.

Stone at least should talk - fml should only talk if they only want some things and not the whole pot - except perhaps to say - come on guys, you are done like a dinner, if you drag this out you are only going to make it worse - come and be a shareholder with us - or bugger off.

Stone have played a very funny game - coming in with an aggressive stance into a deal that is already fully agreed to by friendly parties - and they haven't got any clout ----- not the way to win an argument or get what you want - in Australia anyway.

Well,

have a great day all

Pinto

very odd