At the start of the week, before any trading began, I made quite a few assumptions They turned out to be a little wrong but the concept was still the same
I assumed we would consolidate between 7250 & 7150 before attempting 7300+ (we should have, if chart bosses didn't suppress markets)
Instead, we consolidated between 7100 & 7200
We managed to get through options expiry week without too much damage to charts
All we need is markets to actually trade the highs next week & we should get to 7300 No guarantee bosses are ready to break out of consolidation just yet & no guarantee they don't try take out those lows 1 more time before attempting the top of the trading range
As long as chart bosses suppress the tops, we can't actually see what the true top is & I can't make accurate assessments of markets This is all about deception & confusion I believe we have only seen 2 trading sessions in the last 2 months where we have actually traded market tops for the sessions
My assumptions may be slightly off but I've been fairly honest with my thoughts & predictions My trades have benefited as a result (hopefully others have also benefited the past few months) I hope we all benefit more in the next few months
I also prefer if we can share trade predictions rather than just spam bullish or bearish twitter posts (I thought we're here to trade the xjo or other indices, not discuss retirement plans for our superannuation 10 years from now. Haha)
Every rally this year, the US vix has managed to reach 20 I can't see why we can't reach it again this time I split my vix rallies into 4 zones, with confirmation points at each fence We struggled with the 3rd fence after initially jumping it as it looked like it would try go backwards again But it seems to be back on track to go for that last fence now
Unless something drastic happens, I believe we should get there Imagine the US vix actually returns to the January lows of 16 before the next major pullback (I can't give an exact answer of where that places the indices but I can assure you it'll be a lot higher than we are now) That would need to break the last vix fence The August rally faked a breakout We could have another fake breakout. We might not even get to the fence this time. Or this time it actually does break it properly. I can't make any assurances of what the futures brings. But I do need to see some sort of reversal to believe that we have reached market top (nobody has been able to provide me with any conclusive data or charts. Although I have seen plenty of "the end of the world" posts for the past few months as the xjo has rallied from 6400 to 7200)
Trying to correlate where the vix tops & bottoms will place index tops & bottoms isn't always the same or consistent But the general idea of where market tops & tops is usually the same (unless markets crash & then the vix just spikes forever)
This rally hasn't been easy to trade & the coming weeks & months won't be any easier
Not long ago I made assumptions that we would get to 7200 at the end of the year & 7400 by early 2023 (those criticisms seemed to have quieted down a little now. Haha) We've already reached 7200 much earlier than I anticipated Is there a chance we can get to 7400 sooner than the 2023 target? Possibly But we do have a long term bear market top of 7340 that needs to break first (that level drops as the days go by)
We also have to break out of this consolidation first before worrying about any further climbs or extensions of this rally (this could already be market top & we just don't know yet) There is also the next pullback to worry about
I'm sure once the pullback starts everyone will be happy to start making predictions of where market lows will be Maybe we can start seeing xjo 3000 posts again I guess I won't be needed any more until the next pullback is over again Haha
(20min delay)