14/11 Indices, page-70

20/11/22. Sunday Report - The Week That Was. Week Ended 18/11/22,

XJO Monthly Chart.

The down-trend in the Monthly Chart may have been reversed.

The Hull MA13 has turned up. Remember that this was the first indicator to turn bearish back in October 2021. If it can remain up at the end of the month, we will have had one significant change on the indicators.

This week, the chart has finished above the 8-Month Exponential Moving Average. Another bullish sign.

If these gains can hold until the end of the month, we are entering a new bullish trend.

XJO Weekly Chart.

XJO had a week of consolidation after the previous week's strong upside move. XJO down just -0.09%/.

Hull MA13 and the Supertrend Line are bullish. The index has formed a double bottom

The Index has closed above the 50-Week MA which is a bullish signal.

The down-trend line from May 2022 has also been broken to the upside.

The Index has stalled at horizontal resistance so we may get more consolidation or a pull-back before another move to the upside.

XJO Daily Chart.

XJO has consolidated in a narrow range well above the 200-Day MA. Upside movement has been constrained by horizontal resistance. Plenty of downside support remains, significantly by the 200-Day MA.

RSI is at 65.08. That's down a little from the previous week.

If we get a move above horizontal resistance, that would be another buy signal.

SP500 Weekly Chart

SP500 is lagging behind the XJO. It remains below the major down-trend line from Jan. 2022 and below the 50-Week MA.

Supertrend Line, 8-Week EMA and Hull MA13 have all turned up. Those are bullish events.

The medium-term trend is up - stay with the trend.

ASX Sector Results for this week.

XMJ (Materials) was responsible for keeping the XJO on an even keel this week. XMJ up +3.72%. Only three sectors were up: XMJ, XIJ and XSJ.

The worst performer was XPJ (Property) -1.96%, followed by XEJ (Energy) -1.96%. XXJ (Financials) continued its pull-back from recent highs. XXJ down -0.77%. XXJ remains above its 200 Day MA where it has been since 24 October. A move back to the upside by XXJ would be bullish for the Sector and the wider ASX market.

Relative Strength of Sectors.

RSI (Relative Strength Index) is calculated using the default setting of 14 days - almost three weeks of trading. It provides a more reliable guide to changes in sectors than the one-week results which can jerk around quite a lot and, thus, RSI is probably a better guide to recent strength in the sectors. (Click here for a description of RSI.)

All eleven sectors are above the 50 level - that represents a bullish result.

The strength in Utilities comes up clearly again in this graph. That strength can be discounted to some extent. XUJ is a small sector and take-over activity in that sector has skewed the result to the upside.

Apart from XUJ, no sector is above the overbought level of 70, so they still have room to move to the upside.

NewHighs-NewLows Cumulative.

This is a lagging indicator but bullish signals are usually highly reliable.

This is a metric for the long-term investor. While NH-NL Cumulative remains below its 10-Day Moving Average, it is best for long term investors to remain cautious and defensive regarding the market.

The gap between the NH-NL Cum and the 10-Day MA has narrowed and is tantalisingly close to turn bullish.

I've developed another metric StrongStocks-WeakStocks which is similar to NH-NL but gives signals a little earlier than NH-NL.

SS-WS is up for the second week in a row and has moved above its 5-Week MA. The 5WMA has turned up - that's a bullish sign. This is only the second time this year it has given a bullish signal. The first one didn't last for long (back in late March). Hopefully, we will get a solid run-up this time as we are into a bullish seasonal period.

% of Stocks above key moving averages.

1. % of stocks above 10-Day Moving Average: Last Week 83%, This Week 70%.

2. % of stocks above 50-Day Moving Average, Last Week 83%, This Week 84%.

3. % of stocks above 200-Day Moving Average, Last Week 44%, This Week 46%.

The overbought reading in No.1(Stocks >10-DMA) has been worked off this week falling from 83% to 70%. It could come back a little more before we see another upside move.

Stocks >200Day MA has remained above the crucial 40% level. That suggests that any pull-back will be bought.

% of stocks above the 200-Day MA rose again this week. Steady improvement can be seen in the bar chart and the 5-Week MA is rising.

Conclusion.

The ASX has consolidated this week but still looks bullish. The short-term over-bought quality of the XJO (depending on how you measure it) has been worked off to a small degree. I'd still like to see a bit more downside. That should be an opportunity to re-enter the market.

Stay Safe.