CAF 0.00% 30.0¢ centrepoint alliance limited

New data points:(slide 17) 14% market share in the...

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    New data points:

    • (slide 17) 14% market share in the mid-large self-licensed space.  Self-licensed implies CAF carries zero risk as the underlying party holds their own AFSL.  This segment is growing by double-digits.
    • (slide 32) No new claims beyond petty negligible claims
    • (slide 28) Funds Management and Advice EBITDA grew by 33%.  As markets have risen in 2019, EBITDA should exceed $5.6m for the full year ($2.8m x 2).
    • (slide 27) compare this to the prior period.  The 'self-licensed' network has expanded significantly to 2,370.  This is attractive "no-risk" revenue.
    • Grandfathered commissions will run down, but new fee structure for the above network will kick in.

    Using a SOTP (Sum of the parts) approach:

    Cash $7.4m
    Remaining provisions ($1.8m)
    Receivable from Neos $6.3m
    1. Sub-total = $11.9m or $0.079 per share

    2. Ventura at 6x EBITDA = $5.6m x 6 = $33.6m or $0.22 per share

    3. The "no-risk" self-licensed business that is growing by double-digits and commands 14% market share? $30m or $0.20 per share? 

    4. The AR business. For simplicity and conservatism, let's just say zero.

    1+2+3 = $0.50 per share implying +284% upside.
 
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