Using your post as my starting point, I suggest the following scenario:
SCBPE: Most likely outcome is that the $50m will be carried over with ability to convert to EWC shares dependent on milestones being achieved. I assume that the strike price will not fall below 50c/share.
Financial result: Profit around $23m.
DBP $150m loan to be made available within the next 3 months.
PSC (Sengkang) being extended for up to 20 years by early 2019.
Sengkang LNG trains becoming operational by late 2019.
12km transmission line (Philippines) built by the time the Pagbilao substation (to be built by NGCP) becomes operational (early 2020).
Looking further afield, the following possibilities emerge:
LNG hub (Philippines) to commence receiving assured and competitively priced lng cargos from Fourchon LNG (USA) by mid/late 2021.
Further expansion of 650MW Pagbilao power plant and lng hub 2021/22 onwards.
EWC’s share of gas from PEL96 to be available for monetization from 2021/22 onwards.
Unless shorters have purchased (all/or some of) the 34.7million shorts in the past 4 trading days, they will still need to purchase them.
EWC Price at posting:
17.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
