14thNovember 2023
Tuesday
On Tuesday, November 14th,2023, the United Kingdom is scheduled to release its Claimant Count Changedata, while the United States will unveil its Consumer Price Index (CPI)figures.GBP - ClaimantCount Change
Unemployment data holds significance as it serves as a vital predictor of overall economic health, despite being a lagging indicator. Labor market conditions have a strong correlation with consumer spending, and unemployment plays a crucial role in shaping a country’s monetary policy.
In September 2023, the United Kingdom recorded an increase in the Claimant Count Change, with a rise of 20.40 thousand, compared to a decrease of 9 thousand in August. This data, which tracks changes in unemployment, has historically averaged 1.63 thousand from 1971 to 2023. It reached its highest point at 860.40 thousand in April 2020 and hit a record low of -169.20 thousand in June 2021.
The upcoming release of the Claimant Count Change is scheduled for Tuesday, November 14th, 2023, at 7:00 AM GMT.
The projected forecast for the ClaimantCount Change suggests a rise to 25.0 thousand from the previous figure of 20.4 thousand.
The last time, UK Claimant Count Change was announced on the 24th of October, 2023. You may find the marketreaction graph (GBPJPY M1) below:
USD - Core CPIm/m
Core CPI assumes a crucial role in assessing fundamental inflation patterns by eliminating the influence of volatile food and energy prices, given that consumer prices make up the majority of the broader inflation measure. Consequently, this factor has a substantial effect on currency valuation, as central banks adjust interest rates in line with their mandate to control inflation when prices rise.
Excluding food and energy, the index showed a 0.3% rise, mirroring the increase seen in August. This increase can be attributed to several contributing factors, such as rent, owners' equivalent rent, expenses related to lodging away from home, motor vehicle insurance, recreation, personal care, and new vehicles. However, there were decreases in the prices of used cars and trucks, as well as in the apparel sector over the month. Looking at the past year, the all items index experienced a 3.7% increase, while the all items index, excluding food and energy, witnessed a 4.1% rise. During this period, the energy index declined by 0.5%, while the food index showed a 3.7% increase.
TL;DR
Category
Detail
1 Index Excluding Food & Energy
0.3% rise, mirroring August's increase
2 Contributing Factors
Rent, owners' equivalent rent, lodging away from home, motor vehicle insurance, recreation, personal care, new vehicles
3 Decreases Noted
Prices of used cars and trucks, apparel sector
4 Annual Increase (All Items Index)
3.7%
5 Annual Increase Excluding Food & Energy
4.1%
6 Other Indices
Energy index down by 0.5%, Food index up by 3.7%
The forecast for Core CPI m/m indicates stability, showing no change with a projected rate of 0.3%.
USD - CPI m/m
Consumer prices are the primary driver of overall inflation, and the impact of inflation on currency valuation is closely tied to central banks' actions. When prices begin to rise, central banks may respond by increasing interest rates as part of their mandate to control inflation.
According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) inched up by 0.4% in September, marking a slight deceleration from the 0.6% increase seen in August.
The forecast for CPI m/m suggests a decline from 0.4% to 0.1%.
USD - CPI y/y
Consumer prices, serving as the primary driver of overall inflation, hold a crucial role in currency valuation. Central banks respond to price increases by raising interest rates, aligning with their mandate to control inflation.
Over the past 12 months, the overall index saw a 3.7% increase. The main contributors to the monthly increase were the shelter index, with a significant impact, and a rise in the gasoline index. Energy-related indexes showed mixed results, but the energy index went up by 1.5% in September
The upcoming release of CoreCPI m/m, CPI m/m, and CPI y/y data is scheduled for Tuesday, November14th, at 1:30 PM GMT.
The forecast for the CPI y/y indicates a marginal rise to 3.8%.
The last time, US Core CPI m/m,CPI m/m, and CPI y/y were announced on the 12th of October,2023. You may find the market reactiongraph (USDJPY M1) below:
