My theory in this game is simple.
..and its best to start from a level where your train of thought has not been poisoned.
.. you can't learn to ride a bike by reading a book. Markets are extremely dynamic pending on events markets can switch bullish to bearish and back again within a few days.
From my end, seasonality + positioning + sentiment such as the fear and greed index is more than good enough to get a general feel for the market. The next step is to actually trade that information. I don't think it matters too much for someone that hasn't dipped their feet in this business. But I think it is imperative to start with a rules based system and as simple as possible and view it as a project of ongoing improvement. When comfortable you have aligned everything then you can start deploying capital slowly. All imo.
Following Tom at FX Evolution probably lays down a very solid groundwork on current events - seasonality + positioning + sentiment.
I wouldn't get creative and venture too far away from Tom. The trading itself is another story and a rules based system will at least assist not blowing accounts
I have no affiliation with FX Evolution - but will give dues for good work
(20min delay)