I suspect neither alternative to meet the $$ is particularly...

I suspect neither alternative to meet the $$ is particularly likely - we never will know with certainty the reasons for the low ASP unless LYC start releasing specific sales data. We do know that a lot of the production was "off spec" and sold into the Chinese domestic market and we can assume that any missing RE output is either lost in recovery or sold as road base. But we cant be specific because as you say the data just isn't out there!

We probably can still use the Mt weld basket as a loose guide for a target because they can only store so much RE product and keep it pure. It does not make good business sense for them to store rather than sell and ship any finished product. (it only adds storage and handling costs)