SWM Management guidance given at February 11th 2025 , FY25 Half Year Results. ‘Based on current expectations and market conditions, H2 earnings expected to see modest growth on H2 FY24.’’
Blind Freddie can see that SWM wont just deliver ‘modest growth’ instead SWM will deliver Q4 Total TV bookings at a rate nearly triple that of Q3.
. Put very simply • SWM IS SITTING ON AN EARNINGS UPGRADE AS OF RIGHT NOW. • Q4 WILL DELIVER MID TO HIGH SINGLE DIGIT TOTAL TV BOOKING GROWTH
THIS IS DUE TO • THE BENEFITS OF THE FEBRUARY INTEREST RATE CUT (WHICH HADN'T HAPPENED YET WHEN SWM GAVE THE AFOREMENTIONED ‘MODEST GROWTH’ FORECAST), • THE AFL DIGITAL RIGHTS (WHICH EFFECTIVELY STARTED LAST WEEK) • FEDERAL ELECTION AD SPEND ONCE THE ELECTION IS CALLED (CAMPAIGN PERIOD MUST LAST AT LEAST 33 DAYS) • A MUCH STRONGER AUDIENCE SHARE IN Q4 THAN Q3 THANKS TO MAFS ENDING AT THE START OF APRIL ( REMEMBER THAT ‘FROM RATINGS COMES REVENUE’)
Buying SWM shares right now while they trade at less than 1.5x mid cycle earnings ($155m NPAT) AND why they are sitting on an earnings upgrade is an absolute no brainer.
SWM Price at posting:
14.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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