15 cents or the moon, page-3

Hi Guys,

Have been out of the loop a little - can someone explain to me the RIO / BHP situation and the implication for APG. I know I am a little dense.

My take on the price rise - APG was a bargain at 7.5c - 8.5c; market was pricing the possibility of ERMS and EARS being commericalised at ~25% a peice. It now seems a more reasonable (in my conservative opinion) 40%-50%.

I believe the current outlook warrants at least a 12c base and was staggered when it fell below this. I have been buying more incrementally below this price. I will continue to do so on any pull back.

My view - I expect upon successful completion of the plant (next big check box) APG to push 15c and then when testing is being finalised, speculation to push APG to 20c+.

Because I can't help myself, I spent a little time updating my previous valuation model to take into account the conditional probabilities of ERMS / CS and the EARS plants. I will post it on the hotmail site as before. If anyone wants to repost it here that's fine (my technical skills dont allow).

Regards,
FG