$15 resistance?, page-2

FA

EPS 86 cents PE ratio is 16

earnings outlook is flat

neutral or uncompelling for me

what do the 'experts' say?



UGL UNITED GROUP LIMITED
Capital Goods Overnight Price:
$13.10
Citi rates UGL as Hold, High Risk - United's result was in line but only after a tax benefit, the broker notes. After four years it now seems margin growth has ended and strong earnings growth is expected to moderate from here on in.
With infra projects on the go across the globe it is tempting to forecast further storng earnings growth, the broker notes, but prudence dicates a more modest forecast.

Target rises fom $11 to $13 but Hold retained.


Target price is $13.00 Current Price is $13.10 Difference:($0.10) - (brackets indicate current price is over target). If UGL meets the Citi target it will return approximately - 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June. Citi forecasts a full year FY10 dividend of 64.80 cents and EPS of 92.50 cents. At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.95%. At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.16.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

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Credit Suisse rates UGL as Neutral - Target $13.90 (was $12.60). Post the in line full year earnings result the broker has lifted its estimates slightly in coming years, the changes enough to push up its price target on the stock.
Despite the changes the broker retains its Neutral rating on the stock.


Target price is $13.90 Current Price is $13.10 Difference:$0.80 - (brackets indicate current price is over target). If UGL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June. Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY10 dividend of 62.00 cents and EPS of 91.50 cents. At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.73%. At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.32.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

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Deutsche Bank rates UGL as Hold - An impressive FY09 from United Group has caused Deutsche to lift its target price 38.1% to $13.60, from $9.85.
The broker says the group's balanced portfolio meant a strong performance from Rail and Resources offset weakness in the Infrastructurs and Services sector.

Deutsche tips "modest earnings growth" in FY10 and notes improved gearing but maintains its Hold rating until it sees a "sustained recovery" in United's order book.



Target price is $13.60 Current Price is $13.10 Difference:$0.50 - (brackets indicate current price is over target). If UGL meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June. Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY10 dividend of 65.00 cents and EPS of 95.00 cents. At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.96%. At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.79.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

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JP Morgan rates UGL as Overweight - Target $13.58 (was $11.88). Full year earnings were slightly better than the broker had forecast, which shows the resilience of the group's model in its view.
Post the result the broker's valuation has increased and this pushes up its price target, while it retains its Overweight rating.


Target price is $13.58 Current Price is $13.10 Difference:$0.48 - (brackets indicate current price is over target). If UGL meets the JP Morgan target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June. JP Morgan forecasts a full year FY10 dividend of 66.00 cents and EPS of 88.70 cents. At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.04%. At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.77.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

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Macquarie rates UGL as Neutral - Macquarie analysts appear a bit lukewarm post the result. They believe the highlight was a much better than expected cash flow of $183m, which proved well ahead of their $87.3m expectation.
The broker retains a cautious stance on the stock, based upon a cautious view on the state of construction markets. The impact should be lessened by United's strong infrastructure focus, say the analysts.


Current Price is $13.10. Target price not assessed.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

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RBS Australia rates UGL as Buy - Target $15.46 (was $9.65). Full year earnings matched the broker's expectations and while management has guided to flat earnings in FY10 the broker expects earnings growth to resume in FY11.
In its view there remains upside risk as a cyclical recovery kicks in and so the broker retains its Buy rating, increasing its price target post the result.



Target price is $15.46 Current Price is $13.10 Difference:$2.36 - (brackets indicate current price is over target). If UGL meets the RBS Australia target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June. RBS Australia forecasts a full year FY10 dividend of 64.00 cents and EPS of 91.50 cents. At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.89%. At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.32.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

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UBS rates UGL as Sell - The result was in line with UBS estimates, although Resources, Infrastructure and Property Services were well up, but Rail struggled, the analysts say.
Guidance for FY10 is flat, and given the state of play in UGLs end markets at the moment, UBS views this as a positive.


Target price is $11.50 Current Price is $13.10 Difference:($1.60) - (brackets indicate current price is over target). If UGL meets the UBS target it will return approximately - 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June. UBS forecasts a full year FY10 dividend of 62.00 cents and EPS of 90.00 cents. At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.73%. At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.56.

Market Sentiment: 0.1