Hi Guys,
Due to there being quite a bit of uncertainty with the new acquisition and how it will affect the balance sheet so decided to have a look at gross profits instead (keep things simple)... see attached, would be great if someone could give an estimate of EBITDA.
I also noticed on slide 15 on BRL's recent presentation for the cap raising that Pro Forma Production that no production from Phoenix Coal was included, although 1 quarter of production could be possible if the acquisition is completed before then (I believe?), I also noticed the assumption, for when it was included in FY18, was for 100% ownership... could Bathurst be planning to buy out Talley's share once the share price gets back up to a more reasonable number (like 20 or 30 cents), and potentially do another capital raising... this time coming to all investors for cash via rights issue? Although this is pure speculation, I am not sure why they would quote numbers for FY18 in 100% terms when they only own 65% (I have adjusted mine to show 65% share)...
If this is the case... things could be able to get a lot bigger and better around mid next year and I doubt, with this as a prospect, the big guys will be rushing to dump their shares come early Q2 2017 (Bathurt's Q4)
Although I still don't 'like' what management did with the previous capital raising, I believe they had their hands tied and had to prove they had money all ready to go (no waiting around for a rights issue), and if they are essentially using Talley's as a financier, well this is very smart!
Anyway, the attached should hopefully make sense.
Look forward to further discussion... looks like this is a keeper!
Add to My Watchlist
What is My Watchlist?
