target price 4.50 sterm analysis
i believe that is the target. to stay low for atleast 6-9 months as takes a long while to get back into favour. possibilities that will impact on this target include
+ive = more cost-plus, alliance, contracts, more acquisitions, takeover target (i.e. buy the assets and split em up) e.g. LEI, continuing resource boom, better equity mkts
-ve = more douglas delays or cost impacts on fixed price contracts. Higher costs won't impact again as more cost plus contracts so should be better
equity mkt downturns
commodity price selloff
general mkt sentiment to the stock
management continue to be weak
no rail contract
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Conclusion: So out of favour, not surprising to see mkt whallop 50% of one's stock price. 9.00 high to 4.50 is about 50% so 4.50 is the logical target.
I reckon will dwindle between 4.50 and 5.20 like a Macarthur Coal and after that may increase to $6 in 2008.
DOW Price at posting:
0.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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