I'm not "forecasting" anything. All T/A can do is form an opinion on trading direction based on recent market behaviour. "recent" being the crucial word, which implies that today's analysis will quite likely provide a different extrapolation to analyses 6 or 12 months ago.
Not that some Analysts won't try to repeat the same opinion year after year, because they somehow consider that changing their mind implies being "wrong". Which is a silly notion: It's not possible to maintain a constant prediction over time when every assessment can only be based on yesterday's (and yesteryear's ...) data. How stupid would it be to leave out the last year's history which will have the most significant influence on the immediate future.
On the basis of multi-year history, those old support and resistance levels (14.5, 12, 7) have not changed. And had you asked me 6 or 12 months ago, they would have existed then just as they exist now. The difference between then and now lies in the direction of the respective trading trends.
Last December, I had 7 and 12c to go by, as well as a likely trend change. On that basis, my assessment would have been: A breakout above 12c becomes increasingly likely, and I'll accumulate if that remains the case. A drop below 7c would be a deal breaker. Based on ratios and trading ranges, I even extrapolated (in round numbers) 2c -> 7c -> 12c and arrived at a possible upside target of 22c. So, in February and March when 12c was broken and SAS traded between 12 and 22c, I traded the stock for some reasonable profit - in part by small swings, but also holding a fair position over time. On March 28, I closed the last position and left it alone until I saw a chance for a couple of counter-trend trades in May and August-September.
Those counter-trend trades would have become regular long-termers if the new resistance (27-28c) had been broken and sparked a continuation similar to that in February-March.
SAS Price at posting:
16.0¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
