great post. the aspect around standard deterioration and the margin for safety is a good one to explore. I will do some digging over the weekend.
I understand where you are coming from with the large-ish position in a binary outcome. The upside rewards could be life changing (in $ terms and for the boys), the downside les so but still nil is nil.
These things are generally pretty binary - a 50% fall on open after failed results not uncommon. I would expect a decent ramp up on FOMO as the trial progresses and moving to take profits along the way is something I will consider, and on that basis, looking to build an overweight position whilst we are here at EV $90m, to then reduce risk whilst also maintaining ample exposure.
ANP Price at posting:
22.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
