$15m cap raise Fresh Equities at 24c, page-615

Here’s a take on the last month FWIW
1. SP a month ago was around 21.5c. Had PIP provisionally approved by PDCO couple of weeks before awaiting final “tick” of approval at the EMA meeting about to commence.
2. Sarepta announces capital raise of US$500 mill and includes in use of funds - acquiring of products or entities that complement its offering. Share price jumps.
3. Around same time, Diamond “likes” a Sarepta post on LinkedIn. Probably nothing to it but a strange coincidence nonetheless given no other Sarepta “likes” in the preceding 12 mths or so.
4. SP gains momentum given Sarepta’s perceived need to link up with ANP given its product portfolio, Diamond’s previously stated inclination to go with a licensing deal rather than a CR to fund pivotal trial, and the impending EMA rubber stamp, which could be all that Sarepta are waiting for to de-risk a deal.
5. SP gains reinforce the perception of a possible deal
6. Phase 2b pivotal trial expected to take a year so there is talk of commercialisation late 2022 or in 2023.
7. Stock goes into trading halt on Thursday morning at 29c (after suspiciously selling off in the two days prior from a high of 35c) and stated to come out earlier of announcement or market open Monday.
8. Announcement is made on Monday re. Capital raise (you know the formula with EO and options).
9. Comes out of trading halt 2 hrs 10 mins after market opening indicating CR was not a breeze
10. Stock sells down back to where it was a month ago. Positives since then are the EMA PDCO final opinion in favour (mostly discounted I would argue) and a capital raise in the rear view mirror. Negatives are no pharma deal and schedule of at least four years until commercialisation possibly surprising some SH who thought the timeline was a lot shorter.

I don’t buy into this whole Wizard of Oz-like instos colluding to manipulate the price for three weeks so they can get the EO shortfall. If they wanted more they could have got more in the Insto CR. It looks like Platinum got everything it wanted judging by the round 7 mill shares allocation. Fund managers don’t zoom meet with each other to act in unison. If Fund A is a seller at 21c then Fund B will buy off him if he thinks it’s undervalued. Selling at 21c is worse than 24c plus options below 68c. And 68c is a reasonably high price to breakeven within 3 years based on a futility analysis. Although not in this ANP fan-club forum where the true value is anywhere from 40c to $20 a share.

Seems to me sellers are those that speculated on the licensing deal potential and those not willing to wait 4 years to see this through. Instos would much rather the SP was trading at 35c now imho. They would have been a bit reticent to take up the 24c cent offer initially knowing that most of the previous months price action was on the basis of no CR.

Anyway, just an opinion if you’ve got this far, FWIW. And Buffett always said he wants the SP of a stock he’s accumulating to go down, so his entry prices are better. So Itsa’s got a point.