15thNovember 2023
Wednesday
Wednesday, November 15th,2023, will witness the release of several significant market-affectingannouncements. Australia is poised to announce its Wage Price Index q/q, Chinawill reveal its Industrial Production y/y, the UK is scheduled to unveil itsCPI y/y, and the United States will release a comprehensive set of economicdata, including Core PPI m/m, Core Retail Sales m/m, Empire State ManufacturingIndex, PPI m/m, and Retail Sales m/m. These announcements are anticipated tohave notable implications for financial markets.
AUD - WagePrice Index q/q
This is a notable indicator of consumer inflation since higher labor costs are usually passed on to the end consumer.
Australia's wage price index, adjusted for seasonal factors, recorded a year-over-year increase of 3.6% in the second quarter of 2023. This figure, slightly below market expectations and a slight dip from the 3.7% recorded in the first quarter, still reflected wages at levels reminiscent of those seen in 2012. The growth trend extended to both the private sector (3.7% compared to 3.8% in Q1) and the public sector (3.1% compared to 2.8%). Key contributors to this growth, in original terms, included the manufacturing sector (4.1%), professional, scientific, and technical services (4%), construction (3.9%), transport, postal & warehousing (3.6%), healthcare and social assistance (3.3%), and the public administration and safety industry (2.8%). On a quarterly basis, wage prices increased by 0.8%, maintaining the same pace as the preceding two quarters but slightly below the consensus forecast of 0.9%.
TL;DR
Category
Detail
1 Overall Increase (YoY, Q2 2023)
3.6%, slightly below market expectations, down from 3.7% in Q1
2 Historical Comparison
Reflective of wage levels seen in 2012
3 Private Sector Growth
3.7% in Q2, compared to 3.8% in Q1
4 Public Sector Growth
3.1% in Q2, up from 2.8% in Q1
5 Key Contributors
Manufacturing (4.1%), Professional/Technical Services (4%), Construction (3.9%), Transport/Postal/Warehousing (3.6%), Healthcare/Social Assistance (3.3%), Public Administration/Safety (2.8%)
6 Quarterly Increase
0.8%, same as previous two quarters but below forecast of 0.9%
7 Growth in Private Sector (Q1)
3.8%
8 Growth in Public Sector (Q1)
2.8%
The Wage Price Index for the upcoming quarter is scheduled to be released on Wednesday, November 15,2023, at 12:30 AM GMT.
The projected forecast for the WagePrice Index Year-over-Year (YoY) in the third quarter suggests a modest uptick to 3.8%. This indicator, a significant measure of wage changes, points towards a slight increase in comparison to previous periods, reflecting potential adjustments in overall wage trends.
The last time, the Australian Wage PriceIndex q/q was announced on the 15th of August, 2023. Youmay find the market reactiongraph (AUDUSD M1) below:CNY -Industrial Production y/y
In the world of economics, production stands as a vital barometer, taking the forefront in steering the economy and exhibiting rapid responsiveness to shifts within the business cycle.
In September 2023, China's industrial production growth held steady at 4.5%, maintaining its highest level since April, slightly exceeding market expectations of 4.3%. This stability was attributed to recent policy initiatives that had contributed to the economic rebound. Year-on-year, production had accelerated in the electricity, heat, gas, and water supply sectors but had slowed in mining and manufacturing. Notably, various industries, including electrical machinery and equipment, chemical raw materials, ferrous metals, automobiles, and non-ferrous metals, have continued to exhibit growth. Monthly industrial output had increased by 0.4%, with a year-to-date rise of 4.0%.
TL;DR
Category
Detail
1 Overall Growth (September 2023)
Held steady at 4.5%, exceeding expectations of 4.3%
2 Comparison to Previous Months
Highest level since April
3 Contribution to Stability
Recent policy initiatives aiding economic rebound
4 Sectoral Performance
Acceleration in electricity, heat, gas, and water supply; Slowdown in mining and manufacturing
5 Industry Growth
Growth in electrical machinery/equipment, chemical raw materials, ferrous metals, automobiles, non-ferrous metals
6 Monthly and Year-to-Date Output
Monthly increase of 0.4%, year-to-date rise of 4.0%
The forthcoming Industrial Production y/y data is scheduled for release on Wednesday, November 15, 2023, at 02:00 AM GMT.
The projected forecast for the Industrial Production y/y suggests a marginal uptick from 4.5% to 4.8%.
The last time, Chinese Industrial Productiony/y was announced on the 18th of October, 2023. You mayfind the market reactiongraph (USDCNH M1)
below:
