15thDecember 2023
Friday
Friday ispoised to be a significant day for the financial markets with a series of majorannouncements on the agenda. China is set to reveal its Industrial Productionyear-over-year figures, while France, Germany, Great Britain, and the US willrelease their Flash Manufacturing and Flash Services PMI data. Additionally,the US will also publish its Empire State Manufacturing Index, making it a dayof considerable interest for market watchers.
CNY – Industrial Production y/y
This measure isa key predictor of economic vitality, as production, being the primary engineof the economy, rapidly responds to fluctuations in the business cycle.
In October 2023,China's industrial production experienced a strong year-on-year growth of 4.6%,outpacing September's 4.5% and surpassing the expected 4.4%. This growth, thehighest since April, was mainly due to increases in mining and manufacturingsectors. However, there was a decrease in electricity, heat, gas, and waterproduction. Key growth industries included non-ferrous metals and automobiles,with industrial output rising 0.4% monthly and 4.1% cumulatively over the firstten months of 2023 compared to the previous year.
TL;DR
Metric
Value
1 Year-on-Year Growth (October 2023)
4.6%
2 Comparison with September 2023
4.5%
3 Expected Growth Rate
4.4%
4 Highest Growth Since
April 2023
5 Main Contributors
Mining and Manufacturing Sectors
6 Decrease Observed In
Electricity, Heat, Gas, and Water Production
7 Key Growth Industries
Non-Ferrous Metals, Automobiles
8 Monthly Industrial Output Rise
0.4%
9 Cumulative Growth (Jan-Oct 2023)
4.1%
The forecastsuggests an increase to 5.6% from the previous announcement of 4.6%.
The nextannouncement is scheduled for Friday, December 15th, 2023, at 02:00 AM GMT.
EUR - French Flash Manufacturing PMI
This indicatoris a key measure of economic well-being, as businesses are swift to respond tomarket conditions, and their purchasing managers possess highly up-to-date andpertinent insights into the company's perspective on the economy.
The S&PGlobal France Manufacturing PMI for November 2023 was slightly revised upwardto 42.9, surpassing the initial estimate of 42.6 and showing a slight increasefrom the previous month's 42.8. This marks the tenth consecutive month ofcontraction, the most severe since May 2020, primarily attributed tosignificant weakness in demand. New orders continued to decline, albeit at amoderate pace, largely due to deteriorating market conditions. Consequently,there was a notable decrease in output, the sharpest since May 2020, leading toreductions in workforce numbers, ongoing cuts in purchasing activity, and thesteepest drop in input stocks since May 2020. Input price inflation stabilizedafter six consecutive months of decline. Looking ahead, manufacturers remainedhighly pessimistic about the next twelve months, with expectations of reducedorders, particularly from clients in the automotive and construction sectors.
TL;DR
Metric
Details
1 PMI Value (November 2023)
42.9
2 Initial Estimate (November 2023)
42.6
3 PMI Value (Previous Month)
42.8
4 Duration of Contraction
10 months
5 Comparison with Previous Severity
Most severe since May 2020
6 Primary Cause of Contraction
Significant weakness in demand
7 New Orders Trend
Continued decline, moderate pace
8 Main Contributing Factors
Deteriorating market conditions
9 Output Change
Notable decrease, sharpest since May 2020
10 Employment Trend
Reductions in workforce numbers
11 Purchasing Activity
Ongoing cuts
12 Input Stocks Change
Steepest drop since May 2020
13 Input Price Inflation
Stabilized after six months of decline
14 Future Outlook
Highly pessimistic, next 12 months
15 Expectations for Specific Sectors
Reduced orders, especially in automotive and construction
The forecast ispointing to an increase to 48.0 from the previous announcement of 42.9.
EUR - French Flash Services PMI
This indicatoris a forward-looking measure of economic well-being, as businesses respondswiftly to market conditions, and their purchasing managers possess the mostup-to-date and pertinent insights into the company's perspective on theeconomy.
In November 2023, the HCOB France ServicesPMI registered at 45.4, a slight increase from October's 45.2 and in line withinitial estimates of 45.3. This latest reading signals a continued significantcontraction in the French services sector, driven by a sharp decline in newbusiness, the fastest in three years, leading to a notable drop in activitylevels. Additionally, new export business declined for the sixth consecutivemonth, reflecting client hesitancy. The persistent demand weakness, coupledwith reduced pressure on companies' operating capacities, resulted in sloweremployment growth in November, with job creation at its joint-slowest pace innearly three years. Input costs remained historically high, contributing to anincrease in output charge inflation to a four-month high. Looking ahead, growthexpectations for the next twelve months have weakened as a result of thesechallenging conditions.
TL;DR
Metric
Details
1 PMI Value (November 2023)
45.4
2 Comparison with October 2023
45.2
3 Initial Estimate (November 2023)
45.3
4 Sector Impact
Significant contraction in French services sector
5 Cause of Contraction
Sharp decline in new business, fastest in three years
6 Activity Level
Notable drop
7 New Export Business
Declined for the sixth consecutive month
8 Impact on Employment
Slower growth, joint-slowest in nearly three years
9 Input Costs
Remained historically high
10 Output Charge Inflation
Increased to a four-month high
11 Future Outlook
Weakened growth expectations for the next twelve months
According to theforecast, there is an expected rise from the previous result of 45.4 to 49.4.This development will be closely monitored as it could indicate positivemomentum in the relevant economic indicators.
The upcoming release for the FrenchFlash Manufacturing & Flash Services PMI is scheduled for Friday,December 15th, 2023, at 8:15 AM GMT.
EUR – German Flash Manufacturing PMI
The German FlashManufacturing PMI acts as a crucial gauge of economic health, as businessesreact promptly to changing market conditions. Among those individuals who holdthe most current and relevant insights into a company's assessment of theeconomy are its purchasing managers.
The HCOB GermanyManufacturing PMI was revised higher to 42.6 in November 2023 from an initialestimate of 42.3, remaining the highest reading in six months. The PMIcontinues to point to a deep downturn in the manufacturing sector, although thedecline is easing. Businesses reported the slowest declines in both output andnew orders for six months, with trends in the consumer and investment goodsgroupings moving closer to stabilization. Also, expectations towards futureactivity improved although remaining pessimistic. Meanwhile, firms reportedreducing buying levels in line with lower production and stock requirements.Also, falling demand across was once again reflected in downward pressure onprices as competition for new work fueled further discounting. The rate ofdecline in average factory gate charges was the weakest for five months.Factory employment however, declined faster.
TL;DR
Metric
Details
1 Revised PMI Value (November 2023)
42.6
2 Initial Estimate (November 2023)
42.3
3 Sector Status
Deep downturn, but decline easing
4 Comparison with Previous Period
Highest reading in six months
5 Output and New Orders
Slowest declines in six months
6 Trends in Specific Groupings
Consumer and investment goods moving closer to stabilization
7 Future Activity Expectations
Improved but still pessimistic
8 Firms' Responses
Reducing buying levels, lower production and stock needs
9 Demand and Pricing Pressure
Falling demand, downward pressure on prices
10 Discounting and Factory Gate Charges
Further discounting, weakest rate of decline in five months
11 Employment Trend
Declined faster
The forecastsignals an upward trend, with expectations pointing to a rise from the previousreading of 42.6 to 45.1. This development will be closelyobserved by market analysts and businesses as it could reflect improvingeconomic conditions and sentiment.
EUR – German Flash Services PMI
This serves as aleading indicator for economic well-being, as businesses respond swiftly tomarket conditions, with their purchasing managers often possessing the mostup-to-date and pertinent insights into the company's perspective on theeconomy.
In November2023, the HCOB Germany Services PMI underwent a notable revision, surging to49.6 from its initial estimate of 48.7, surpassing the October figure of 48.2.This revised data pointed to a marginal decline in services activity, with therate of contraction slowing compared to the previous month, attributed to a reduceddecline in new business. Employment levels remained relatively stable, showinga slight increase after two consecutive marginal declines. Simultaneously,there was an uptick in cost pressures, primarily driven by rising wages,resulting in the sharpest increase in firms' input prices in six months.However, heightened competition for new business opportunities tempered pricingpower, leading to a slight slowdown in output charge inflation. Looking ahead,service providers held modest expectations for activity growth over the next 12months.
TL;DR
Metric
Details
1 Revised PMI Value (November 2023)
49.6
2 Initial Estimate (November 2023)
48.7
3 Comparison with October 2023
48.2
4 Sector Trend
Marginal decline in services activity
5 New Business Trend
Reduced decline in new business
6 Employment Levels
Relatively stable, slight increase after two marginal declines
7 Cost Pressures
Uptick, mainly due to rising wages
8 Input Prices
Sharpest increase in six months
9 Pricing Power
Tempered by competition, led to slight slowdown in output charges
10 Future Outlook
Modest expectations for activity growth over the next 12 months
The forecast forthe upcoming release of the German Flash Services PMI data suggests amarginal drop from the previous reading of 49.6 to 49.5.
The GermanFlash Manufacturing and Flash Services PMI data is scheduled for release onFriday, December 15th, 2023, at 8:30 AM GMT.
GBP - Flash Manufacturing PMI
The FlashManufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) serves as a leading indicator ofeconomic well-being. This is because businesses are highly responsive to marketdynamics, and their purchasing managers possess the most up-to-date andpertinent insights into their company's perspective on the broader economy.
In November2023, the S&P Global/CIPS UK Manufacturing PMI was revised upward to 47.2,surpassing the initial estimate of 46.7 and October's 44.8. This latest readingreached its peak since April, although it still indicated the 16th consecutivemonth of contraction in the manufacturing sector. Output continued its declineamidst reports of weakened domestic demand, reduced intake of new exportbusiness, and destocking activities observed both among manufacturers and theirclients. Moreover, new orders experienced an eighth consecutive month ofdecline, with new export business dwindling for a 22nd straight month.Employment also sustained a downward trend, along with reduced activity ininput buying. Concerning prices, input costs decreased while selling pricesrose, reflecting efforts to restore margins. Lastly, business confidence showeda slight improvement in November.
TL;DR
Metric
Details
1 Revised PMI Value (November 2023)
47.2
2 Initial Estimate (November 2023)
46.7
3 Comparison with October 2023
44.8
4 Sector Trend
16th consecutive month of contraction
5 Output
Continued decline due to weakened domestic demand, export challenges
6 New Orders
8th consecutive month of decline
7 New Export Business
22nd consecutive month of decline
8 Employment Trend
Downward trend
9 Input Buying Activity
Reduced
10 Price Trends
Decreased input costs, increased selling prices
11 Business Confidence
Slight improvement
12 Peak Since
Highest reading since April
The forecast suggests a minor uptick to 48.0,up from the previous reading of 47.2.
GBP - Flash Services PMI
The FlashServices PMI functions as an early indicator of economic health, withbusinesses swiftly adapting to market changes, and their purchasing managersholding the most up-to-date and relevant information regarding their company'seconomic outlook.
In November2023, the S&P Global/CIPS UK Services PMI received a slight upwardrevision, reaching 50.9 compared to the initial estimate of 50.5 and October's49.5. This latest PMI reading marked the first expansion in service sector activitysince July, driven by growing demand and the completion of ongoing projects.Backlogs of work continued to decline for the sixth consecutive month, reachingtheir fastest rate of decrease since August. Employment levels increased due tolong-term business expansion plans and a cautious improvement in demandconditions. Regarding pricing, average cost burdens rose slightly faster,marking the second-lowest rate since March 2021, while output charge inflationreached its highest point since July. Lastly, business sentiment showed signsof improvement in November.
TL;DR
Metric
Details
1 Revised PMI Value (November 2023)
50.9
2 Initial Estimate (November 2023)
50.5
3 Comparison with October 2023
49.5
4 Sector Trend
First expansion since July
5 Key Drivers
Growing demand, completion of ongoing projects
6 Backlogs of Work
Continued decline for sixth month, fastest decrease since August
7 Employment Levels
Increased, driven by long-term business plans and improved demand conditions
8 Cost Burdens
Slight increase, second-lowest rate since March 2021
9 Output Charge Inflation
Highest since July
10 Business Sentiment
Improved in November
The forecast suggests a rise to 51.1from the previous outcome of 50.9.
The forthcoming Flash Manufacturing PMIand Flash Services PMI for Great Britain are scheduled to be released on Friday,December 15, 2023, at 9:30 AM GMT.
USD - Empire State Manufacturing Index
The Empire StateManufacturing Index is a significant forecaster of economic health, as itreflects how businesses promptly adapt to market changes. Changes in this indexcan provide early indications of future economic activities such as spending,hiring, and investment.
In November2023, the New York Empire State Manufacturing Index in the United States increasedto 9.1 points, a significant improvement from the -4.6 points recorded inOctober. Over the period spanning from 2001 to 2023, this index maintained anaverage of 7.42 points. Its highest point was reached in July 2021 at 43points, while its lowest point was recorded at a staggering -78.2 points inApril 2020.
TL;DR
Metric
Details
1 Index Value (November 2023)
9.1 points
2 Comparison with October 2023
Improved from -4.6 points
3 Historical Average (2001-2023)
7.42 points
4 Highest Point Recorded
43 points in July 2021
5 Lowest Point Recorded
-78.2 points in April 2020
The forecast forthe Empire State Manufacturing Index suggests a decrease to b down fromthe previous outcome of 9.1.
The upcomingrelease of the Empire State Manufacturing Index is set for Friday,December 15, 2023, at 1:30 PM GMT.
USD - Flash Manufacturing PMI
The FlashManufacturing PMI acts as a key indicator of economic health. Businesses areextremely responsive to market fluctuations, and their purchasing managers holdthe most current and relevant information regarding the company's economicprospects.
The S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI wasconfirmed at 49.4 in November 2023, marking the lowest level in three monthsand indicating a renewed deterioration in operating conditions within themanufacturing sector, primarily due to lower new orders. The return to acontraction in new sales resulted in a slower expansion of production andfurther workforce reductions. Additionally, inventories continued to decrease,and input buying remained stagnant. Meanwhile, the pace of input cost increasesslowed significantly, leading to dampened inflation. Firms also moderated theextent to which they passed on higher costs to customers, resulting in a slowerrise in selling prices. Looking back, business expectations in November showedimprovement compared to October's recent low but still suggested subdued growthexpectations for the year ahead.
TL;DR
Metric
Details
1 Confirmed PMI Value (November 2023)
49.4
2 Trend
Lowest level in three months, indicating renewed deterioration
3 Main Cause
Lower new orders
4 Production Trend
Slower expansion due to contraction in new sales
5 Workforce Adjustments
Further reductions
6 Inventory Status
Continued decrease
7 Input Buying
Stagnant
8 Input Cost Increases
Slowed significantly, leading to dampened inflation
9 Selling Prices
Slower rise, with firms moderating cost pass-through to customers
10 Business Expectations
Improvement compared to October but subdued growth expectations ahead
The forecast for the Flash ManufacturingPMI suggests a minor decline to 49.2 from the previous reading of 49.4.
USD - Flash Services PMI
The FlashServices PMI is a forward-looking gauge of economic well-being. Businessesrespond promptly to market conditions, and their purchasing managers typicallypossess the most up-to-date and pertinent insights into the company'sperspective on the economy.
The S&P Global US Services PMI wasconfirmed at 50.8 in November 2023, the highest in four months, from 50.6 inOctober. The reading pointed to further growth in the services sector, asoutput and new business expanded. Customer demand strengthened on the month, asnew business from abroad also ticked up. Meanwhile, workforce numbers increasedto the smallest extent for over a year, with backlogs falling at a quickerpace, amid reports of burgeoning spare capacity. Also, service providers hikedcharges at a quicker rate, but input cost inflation eased to the slowest inover three years. Finally, expectations for output over the coming year weredown to the joint-lowest in 2023 to date.
TL;DR
Metric
Details
1 Confirmed PMI Value (November 2023)
50.8
2 Comparison with October 2023
Increased from 50.6
3 Overall Trend
Highest in four months, indicating growth in services sector
4 Key Drivers
Expansion in output and new business
5 Customer Demand
Strengthened
6 International Business
Slight increase in new business from abroad
7 Workforce Changes
Smallest increase in over a year
8 Backlogs
Falling at a quicker pace, indicating spare capacity
9 Pricing Trends
Higher charges, but input cost inflation at slowest in over three years
10 Future Outlook
Joint-lowest expectations for output in 2023 to date
The forecast for the Flash Services PMIsuggests a minor decrease to 50.7 from the previous reading of 50.8.
The upcoming news release for both the FlashManufacturing PMI and Flash Services PMI is scheduled for Friday,December 15th, 2023, at 2:45 PM GMT.
