Hamlet: The readiness is all.In Australia FridayXJO was up...

Hamlet: The readiness is all.

In Australia Friday

XJO was up +0.21%, which set a new all time high, but intra-day selling knocked about -0.5% off the top. That amounts to a reversal day. Overnight ASX Futures are down -0.82%, so we can expect a big down day on Monday. The three day candle pattern will represent the end of this short-term up trend.

Overnight Friday in the U.S.

Dow Jones up marginally, +0.09%. SP500 -0.19%. Nasdaq -0.36%. Small caps -1.04%. Banks -0.48%.

Friday was options expiry day in the U.S. which means high volumes and usually erratic trading as market makers and option holders strive to get the best result for their books.

Wednesday was the Big Fed interest rate drop of -0.5%. That resulted in lots of reversal candles on the indices. When coming at the top of a trend that's usually a reliable indication of the end at least in the short-term. That will probably play out next week, which usually under-performs coming after options expiry day. (See Quantified Strategies.)

Dow Jones.

Friday's wide candle indicates the volume effect on Options Expiry day.

Negative divergence on MACD Histogram suggests the next movement is down.

Convergence of short-term and long-term Stochastics suggest the market is at or close to the end of an up-trend cycle.

Commodities.

Commodities Index flat 0.00%. Energy -0.26%. Base Metals -1.44%. Agriculture -0.66%. Gold +1.27%.

Those Energy and Base Metals prices provide little joy for Australian resources stocks, Gold excepted.

BHP down overnight in London down -2.78% after being up +0.37% in Oz yesterday.

The Oz BHP chart is instructive.

The big blue candle on Friday for BHP indicates a big intra-day sell-off in BHP. This is the third time in the past 50 trading days that BHP has nudged above the Hull MA200 and then sold off. Expect a return to a short-term down trend for BHP next week. BHP remains in a long-term down-trend. Until we see the 19-Day Hull MA (blue line) above the Hull MA200, BHP remains a short-term trading option only. When the Hull MA19 goes above the Hull MA200 we might then see a long-term up trend.

Full Weekly Wrap later today or tomorrow.

Enjoy your weekend and stay safe.