???, page-21

Badfish,

It concerns me a little that JH can't do a deal and might feel its akin to giving away his first born. A bit like that show "American Pickers", where the seller wants to sell everything, except not that one because its sentimental, nor that one because its something I want to work on, nor that one etc..."

Were you thinking of giving up a whole basin or an EP? Whats wrong with blocks, or even sub-blocks. (For the non geo, it means like doing a housing sub-division rather than selling the hole estate).

The concept of fugacity comes into it (i.e. oil will flow from one area to another) so if a neighbour doesn't drill it leaks into the neighbour's depleted base and he keeps pumping. There is no concept in oils mind of being the possession of some fellow up top who pegged the land. So the farm-in holder will exploit his blocks speedily and in a manner that optimises his outcome.

If CTP had a 1000 acres I see the problem, but at this juncture CTP should be thinking more like selling franchises. Sometimes you need to sell a chunk of the farm to a developer in order to get that bigger tractor.

CTP will run into all sorts of issues in due course as the NT Govt gets approached as leases come up for renewal. All Govts will want to get royalties and they are not immune to whispers and approaches of third-parties who want to spend to develop a resource of a holder who is cash strapped.

I am still of the view that using other people's money to expand the asset rather than years of dilution and operating on a shoe string. CTP can use its understanding of its acreage in the broad sense to target new areas for demonstration of resource, then take a cut from a farm-in.

T Boon-Pickens spent $10 billion on a failed wind farm, and if anyone thinks that would be awesome capital appreciation on their current share holding, if $10bn was offered you can bet there is possibly 10-100 times that value. (just playing with numbers to make a point).

Being fearful of making a deal because you believe you will lose something is not a helpful mindset nor a useful business strategy. You should go as hard as you can as fast as you can - stragglers get eaten and front runners have a chance - there are no guarantees.

In summary, I believe CTP won't be in its existing form, with the same managers or shareholders in the future. A bit like death so accept that principle - stop worrying about finishing up a Grand Poobah, just do your best in the meantime as there is too much luck and too many unknowns.

Start making the friggin' deals.