CTP central petroleum limited

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  1. 8,120 Posts.
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    "I strongly oppose a JV now as I think Central is too close to "launch" and any offer now would be opportunistic and below real value. That said we need more money so I think another cap raising should be done (following a modest pause after the SPP is completed). $20m would be my target and I would use it for some more seismic first (I know many of you will not like that idea) then look to drill. I favour this approach because if we can increase production and get more success under our belt, then project financing becomes more likely and does away with the need to either accept a low-ball JV offer through desperation, or to continually pass the hat around for more moeny to drill."

    Badfish,

    It will come as no surprise to you that I dont agree.

    I will start with your suggestion that CTP do more seismic.

    My reasons for apposing that suggestion, is the detriment of further drilling at Surprise, is that it costs a significant amount to do seismic, approx $5, mil and takes along time (say 6 months), and there is more than sufficient time later to do more seismic.

    There is however limited time (and opportunity) to increase cash flow, and Surprise drilling is the way to do it.

    To do a seismic, there would need to be a further dilution of shareholders holdings by way of a CR, why not spend the $5 mil on a second hole at Surprise and locate more oil and improve cash flow from that discovery.

    That will in turn increase the Share Price and if a CR is required then less shares will need to be offered and less dilution.

    It will also give more focus on CTP and Central Australia and bring a better value for any JV.

    In regards to JV, even if we got top dollar from a JV partner today, it will look cheap in 3-4 years time , so its all relative, but a good JV today, such as bringing in a JV for Surprise and giving them say 40% on the basis that they pay for all costs for at least 10 wells over the next 2 years, would to my mind be a far more productive and financially beneficial.

    I do agree with your comment "if we can increase production and get more success under our belt, then project financing becomes more likely"

    And that is why I say, drill and drill Surprise so that we do get more production and the attendant cash flow.

    I am sure that there are many permuatations , but I like the concept of "we have found Oil, lets sell it, and lets drill where we already know we have it and sell more"

    A simple concept, but thats what business as all about,

    Doing seismic will delay any further drilling until at least late 2012, and I really think that CTP shareholders would revolt (mutiny) if CTP decided not to continue with drilling at Surprise to improve cash flow.

    The Board is already on notice (AGM First Strike)and I have no doubt that to follow your suggestion would be corporate suicide.

    CB





 
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