Badfish,Firstly, excellent post mate. This is the sort of...

Badfish,

Firstly, excellent post mate. This is the sort of quality we would all dearly love to have much more of. TU from me.

Okay, well I agree with what you're saying, and I am one of those guys who have used a P/E (on this forum) to attempt a valuation of CTP. I agree with you that without a clear line of sight on how to actually achieve the "E" then it is murky waters and will remain uncertain. My calculation at best is educated guesswork, despite the merit on which it is built. So I agree with you there.

Most interestingly however is your assertion that the company should raise more capital, complete some seismic and then establish a P50 number (the equivalent of JORC for minerals). While I agree that this would certainly be an excellent way to do things, the unfortunate reality is that we may barely scrape through THIS capital raising as it is. And considering the underwhelming investor reaction to the first success at the well, I would suggest we'd need to give them something more substantial to look at first, prior to embarking on such a path so that they may properly re-rate the stock.

Moreover, your assertion that we could do another vertical plus horizontal for $7m for me is SLIGHTLY overpriced in this case only because we will not need to complete a total vertical like we did this occasion as we intend to get straight into another horizontal within the same producing zone albeit a few kms up the road. I suggest that $5m will be closer to the figure... interestingly the number likely to be raised should CTP get the SPP over the line.

That said, I feel if the company can "clean up" this hole as they suggest, and get flow up to 1000bopd, and do another for the same return (assuming the SPP is successful), then 2000Bopd will not be ignored (and imagine if it is higher), as this is a figure most arm-chair investors understand. It MAY allow us to successfully make our TSX move, and raise the capital there necessary to "do a Bakken" as you said.

You certainly make a lot of sense, and if Central WERE able to raise capital back-to-back then I would say we're already a producer in everyone's eyes. I fear however that the truth cuts a more forlorn figure. We will have to prove this once again to REALLY get people believing in the story. We are still the Junior that has over-promised/under-delivered for too many people.

Also, the EPT may take time, as mentioned by another poster on here, and in that time period, the share price is likely to drift into ignominy. This would undermine any likelihood of a second CR in my opinion, as people are SO results hungry, they would abandon the company "just in case". I base this on the overwhelming evidence in the past few years with this company. The Johnstone debacle really developed a cynical core to many people's views of Central, and delays like that (albeit for a just a reasonable cause) will unfortunately be dealt with severely. We are not afforded the luxuries of a large company.... yet.

Either way, outstanding post mate. Your insights are articulate and a great benefit to this forum. Thanks very much.

RB