19thOctober 2023
Thursday
On Thursday, October 19, 2023,both Australia and the United States are poised to make high-impact newsannouncements. Australia is scheduled to disclose its figures for EmploymentChange and the Unemployment Rate. Simultaneously, the United States will releasedata concerning Unemployment Claims. These events are of great significance toanalysts, investors, and policymakers monitoring global economic trends.
AUD –Employment Change
Traders maintain a close watch on job creation as it serves as a pivotal leading indicator with a profound influence on consumer spending, subsequently exerting a significant impact on overall economic activity.
During August, Australia witnessed a notable resurgence in employment figures, marking a recovery from an unforeseen dip. Simultaneously, the unemployment rate remained unchanged, suggesting resilience in the labor market despite the Reserve Bank's twelve interest rate hikes. Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, released on Thursday, revealed a substantial addition of 64,900 jobs compared to the prior month, with the bulk of the increase stemming from part-time positions. This figure significantly exceeded the anticipated job gain of 25,000.
The forecast for the AustralianEmployment Change is reading an increase of 15,000 individuals.
AUD –Unemployment Rate
Traders value this indicator because, despite being considered lagging, the number of unemployed people remains a crucial signal of overall economic health due to the strong correlation between consumer spending and labor-market conditions.
The unemployment rate held steady at 3.7% as the labor force expanded, maintaining a range between 3.4% and 3.7% since June of the previous year.
The forecast for the Australian Unemployment Rate is reading an unchanged3.7%.
The announcement of the UnemploymentRate and Employment Change is scheduled for Thursday, October 19,2023, at 01:30 AM GMT+1. This data holds significance for analysts and investors seeking insights into the labor market.
Last time, the Unemployment Rateand Employment Change were announced on the 14th of September,2023. You may find the market reactiongraph (AUDJPY M1) below:
USD -Unemployment Claims
While typically considered a trailing indicator, the count of unemployed individuals remains a pivotal barometer of the broader economic well-being, owing to its strong correlation with consumer spending. Additionally, unemployment holds notable importance for those tasked with shaping the nation's monetary policies.
In the week concluding on October 7th, the number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits steadfastly remained at 209,000, subtly undercutting estimates that projected 210,000. This figure sustains its proximity to September’s seven-month low of 202,000. Concurrently, continuing claims witnessed a surge, increasing by 30,000 to 1,702,000 in the preceding week. Although this figure surpassed market estimates, which anticipated 1,680,000, it remains notably adjacent to the lows experienced in this year’s third quarter. This data reinforces the evidence that the labor market is maintaining its historically robust and tight condition. Consequently, it underscores the labor market's enhanced resilience amidst the Federal Reserve’s assertive tightening cycle, thereby providing some latitude for sustaining elevated rates over an extended period.
TL;DR
The forecast for the USUnemployment Claims is reading an increase to 212,000 individuals.
The announcement of the UnemploymentClaims is scheduled for Thursday, October 19, 2023, at 01:30 PM GMT+1.
Last time, the UnemploymentClaims were announced on the 14th of September, 2023. You may find the market reactiongraph (USDJPY M1) below:
20thOctober 2023
Friday
On Friday, October 20, 2023, the UK is scheduled tounveil its Retail Sales m/m data, while the United States will disclose itsTreasury Currency Report. These announcements are of great interest to analystsand investors tracking global economic trends.
GBP - RetailSales m/m
Traders find it particularly noteworthy due to its role as a primary indicator of consumer expenditure, which constitutes a significant portion of the overall economic activity.
In August 2023, retail sales in the UK exhibited a modest recovery, with a 0.4% increase compared to the previous month, partially rebounding from the 1.1% decline experienced in July, although it narrowly missed the 0.5% market consensus. This recovery was particularly evident in food store sales, which saw a notable 1.2% increase, and non-food store sales, which grew by 0.6%. However, online trade declined by 1.3%, and automotive fuel sales experienced a 1.2% drop, primarily attributed to rising fuel prices. Looking at the annual perspective, retail trade declined by 1.4% in August, marking the 17th consecutive month of contraction but showing the slowest rate of decline in this period.
TL;DR
The forecast for the UK Retail Sales m/m is reading a slight decrease of -0.1%.
The upcoming Retail Sales m/m data is scheduled for release on Friday, October 20, 2023, at 07:00 AM GMT+1. This announcement is eagerly awaited by analysts and investors for insights into consumer spending trends.
Last time, the Retail Salesm/m was announced on the 22th of September, 2023. You may find the market reactiongraph (GBPUSD M1) below:
Disclaimer: The market news provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as trading advice.
