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19/10/22
11:39
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Originally posted by TheFadz:
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TLDR 2 nights ago the vix move had a weak finish to the session Last night was a strong move It had an opportunity to breakdown & it didnt Bounced straight up, after closing the previous gap left behind They managed to finish distribution & reset, ready to move the markets up again (no guarantee they will though) The way the current trend looks, we should have at least 1 more green session tonight & then we hit the last vix wall (doesn't mean it will close green) Approx 29.7 If the current trend continues, we have another vix spike all the way back to 34 & markets continue to sell down afterwards/consolidate (which means 6900 back to 6700 then back to 6500) Not what I want to happen Personally I want the trend to change & I need to see that fence break to confirm the trend change & bulls will need to target 26 in the coming week XJO target 7100 When I suggested 6800/6900 last week, you all thought I was mad Haha The only way we get to 7300 is if the vix closes the 19.6 gap but that's going to take quite some time & some decent data prints in the coming weeks/months (I'm not very hopeful of that yet but I have that plan in place in case the pieces move that way) There was no need to mention 7300 yet, but I seem to enjoy putting ridiculous targets out there, especially when those targets get met after some criticism Haha Dxy & 10yr bond yields need to roll over (which they didn't last night. Had every opportunity to make news highs but failed) Could still move either way atm I'm leaning towards more weakness with these 2, at least for now XJO bounced off the hrly ema on my chart That's as bullish as I've seen in a while But the chart bosses will need to try shake off some weak hands today if they plan to push markets higher I'm worried that if they don't shake today before we climb, then 6900 will be the highest we get to before we start selling off again I think 7100 is still within reach this month (needs better correlating data for this to happen though) For today, as long as we bounce off 6720 & close anywhere near 6760, I'll be happy Especially happy if bulls can jump the fence Current fence for today is 6780 at the open (6760 at the close) Bears will try protect that fence. Bulls need to jump it, or at least hide behind it to jump it after hours, while the bears aren't looking Bottom of channel is 6720 at the open (6700 at the close) If chart bosses continue with the intraday trends we've seen lately, we go nowhere today & we close just under 6760 All major movements seem to happen after hours
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I got the channel completely wrong this morning before that strong premarket move threw all my numbers out Even suggesting the bulls jumping the fence without the bears watching would happen after hours was wrong But now that they didn't try the shake & instead went for the squeeze, bulls need to tag 6820 & close above that fence Otherwise it's a quick sell back down to 6760 (my originally target for the close) Same end of day target, just a different pathway to get there Next target, if bulls are succesful after 6820, will be 6880 (let's see how the day finishes before making further predictions)