You could identify seasonal weakness in June for 4 of the last 7 years but after the huge price falls through last year I doubt you could bank on mid year weakness this year. It might happen or gold stocks might trend up through the period instead. Nothing is set in stone with the markets especially after the volatility we have seen over the last year.
For the XGD, 2007 and 2009 both saw some gains between April and end of June. 2010 saw decent gains over that period. After the 2011 high you had falls into each June but the falls had less to do with June and more to do with a strong down trend. In 2012 the June sell-off actually began in Sep the previous year and for 2013 it began in Oct the previous year so you can't blame those on June. This year we have broken that down trend so who knows if we get a dip from now into June or a small rise as we had in 2007 and 2009 or perhaps a stronger rise as in 2010.
MML has enough potential catalysts to rise over the next 4 months with a qtr result to come out this month which could see a strong re-rating higher. Macquarie had mentioned they could see an investment case but would like to see the company deliver first. I expect they will see that this qtr. Then another qtr report 3 months later with a strong potential for a dividend to be discussed or re-introduced.
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