18 year property cycle, page-107

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MasterStrategist

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1954

12/01/22

12:34

Post #: 58802108
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Originally posted by MyDisco2: ↑

Given the vast level of experience you have mentioned it would be nice to confirm if this advice about telling renters not to buy in this climate is about specific areas of the property market in Australia - namely East coast - Sydney and Melbourne? I can see the inevitable interest rate rises having a pronounced effect there given affordability is already stretched so agree with you there.

There's such a big disconnect between the East and West coasts in regards to property and it gets a bit tiring everyone lumping the entire market together which is why I don't post here much either. I know very little about East Coast property and I am of an opinion you need to specialise on markets within markets so to speak given the scale of the country. Every legendary "BBQ real estate expert" I have met recently is either doom and gloom or major bull and nothing in between when the reality is our RE market is far more diverse than that.

Case in point I personally believe the IR rises will have a much smaller impact on growth in WA real estate given the fact average wages are actually higher than NSW but the median is around half that of Sydney - not that median house prices mean anything really - not a great indicator of much. So given massive labour shortages, no immigration and very little RE stock available plus the fact its still cheaper to buy than rent I can see Perth / WA outperforming against NSW / VIC when the borders finally open.

Other than a black swan event I can see a couple of further years of strong growth ahead for Perth and some regions of WA and I actually would recommend renters buy there if they can get the house they are after as demand has way outstripped supply and its difficult to secure the right property.

Cheers,

Disco.

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You make a valid point, Disco. While my experience covers all the Eastern States, including rural, I only keep a little finger of interest in WA and Perth. I'm aware that the west hasn't experienced the same level of price graduation, so you could may well be right. The same might be said for SA, which has always been the laggard.
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