18 year property cycle

Originally posted by JimmyD75 ↑

Forged... What on earth are you talking about? Rising interest rates generally cause commodities prices to fall, not increase. You need to stop writing rubbish on here, as your theories are very misleading. Although people can easily google these things by themselves and test out whether your theories are commonly supported or rejected.

When interest rates rise, the most heavily affected asset classes in order, will likely be:

1) Cryptocurrency, where there will likely be a 70-80% decline in the value of coins like Bitcoin which have no apparent utility other than being a perceived store of value. Many crypto assets that give no income and are purely a speculative asset will likely go to zero. Possibly the NFT space, where there seems to be greatest apparent utility, may buck the trend.

2) Share markets, which will likely see a drop of 40-50%, with stocks that don't make any money or have no real prospect of making any money in future being wiped out altogether. The most likely to hold up are perhaps electric energy-related stocks which are involved in the successful mining and supply of future high-demand mineral product (eg. lithium, vanadium and magnesium).

3) Property, which in Australia is likely to fall between 15-40%. Most regions in Australia have benefited from the strong monetary and fiscal stimulus of the last decade, but some had not done well despite this growth-conducive environment. It was only when a concerted pedal-to-the-metal approach was employed by the RBA and government in the last year or two that some markets finally showed signs of life (Perth, Darwin and regional included here). In my opinion, the markets that have gone up hardest post-Covid (i.e. relied heavily on this extreme stimulus for their growth) will fall the hardest.

4) Fixed-rate bonds, which will likely see a 5-20% drop in valuations depending on the investment type/grade and duration. The exception here will be floating (especially inflation-linked) coupon paying instruments, which generally perform better when there are rate rises.

These estimates are only my opinions, which are however based on a study of the historical performance of the above investment asset classes (both locally and overseas). I have previously worked in investment-related fields for almost two decades. I should also state that although I have an Economics degree and related post-graduate qualifications, I am not currently, nor have I ever worked as an Economist.

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Australia (Interest rate up, inflation up & property prices up)

Post Covid Commodity supercycle: (2020- ????). Commodity, raw material & energy shortages due to under investment post 2008.

Rise of the dragon China: (2000-2009). Massive rate hikes = booming house prices (WA especially during commodity supercycle)

Inflationary cycle: 1980s. Crazy rate hikes = increasing house prices ($75k median in 1980 to $185k median by early 1990)