The real unanswered question for me is not what the market penetration will be immediately after introduction, but what it will be one year out. That is, what will be the rate of acceptance over time.
Jev,
Mr Mastitis (no that's not his real name) said yesterday he would be happy with 5% in the first year and then 10% in the second, but then quickly added (about the second year) that it is just too difficult to forecast, given the variables, which I think is a prudent thing to say given some of the obstacles you outline such as initial skepticism etc.
18000 doses a day in anz, page-109
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